Guide Metallographer:7.6Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold is expected to plummet, Rebound continuation...

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Tuesday(7month5day)Spot gold is under pressure and is declining as the US dollar index breaks through and rises sharply1%, refresh2002year12Since the beginning of the month, the high point has reached106.294. The signs of easing in China US trade relations have given a brief respite to tense market sentiment. Investors closely monitor the upcoming announcement of the Federal Reserve6Monthly meeting minutes and6The monthly non farm employment report is pending further evaluation of the relationship between high inflation and the increasing possibility of economic recession.


　　7month5On the morning of the day, Liu He, member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Vice Premier of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the China US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, held a video call with US Treasury Secretary Yellen as requested. Both sides exchanged practical and candid views on issues such as macroeconomic situation and global industrial and supply chain stability, and the exchange was constructive. Both sides believe that the current world economy is facing severe challenges, and strengthening macro policy communication and coordination between China and the United States is of great significance. Jointly maintaining global industrial and supply chain stability is beneficial for both China and the United States and the entire world. China has expressed concerns about the lifting of tariffs and sanctions imposed by the United States on China, as well as fair treatment of Chinese enterprises. Both parties agree to continue maintaining dialogue and communication.


Later this week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its recent policy meeting, while the widely anticipated US non farm payroll data will be released on Friday(7month8day)Publish. Traders will continue to closely monitor the trajectory of US inflation and economic growth, playing a crucial role in influencing short-term US dollar price dynamics and helping investors determine the next stage of gold price trends.


　　Saxo Markets Hong KongMarket Strategist for Greater ChinaRedmond Wong"Inflation remains high and there are signs that the United States may be about to enter a recession, and market participants are still evaluating the potential impact of a tug of war between the two," said the statement


Powell is unable to articulate the coherence and consistency of policies


Powell is facing long-term high inflation, a sharp drop in risky assets, and an increasingly serious threat of economic recession. He is facing further questioning and criticism around his management of the Federal Reserve, while the challenges facing the Fed are exponentially increasing.


In order to contain40The most severe high inflation in years, the Federal Reserve6The monthly benchmark interest rate has been raised75A basis point, this is25The largest single interest rate hike in the year. This move exceeded market expectations, as less than a week ago, the market still expected the Federal Reserve to6Monthly interest rate increase50One basis point. Powell is also increasingly causing unease among Federal Reserve observers, who complain that he is unable to articulate policy coherence and consistency.


Chief Economist of Moody's AnalyticsMark Zandi"The Federal Reserve has no script and can only improvise, improvise some rhetoric, and get tired of dealing with painful high inflation," he said


Former New York Fed Chairman Dudley, who worked with Powell at the Federal Reserve, stated last week in a live broadcast on a think tank that Fed leaders are putting their credibility at risk. When the Federal Reserve changes its mind at the last minute like this, it does have the potential to undermine its crucial communication credibility with the market and the public


It has been proven that inflation is higher than expected by Federal Reserve officials and lasts much longer. The Federal Reserve's incessant talk of raising interest rates to curb soaring inflation has become a key factor in continuing to suppress non yield asset gold.


Technical analysis of gold:


From the perspective of the gold daily structure, the gold first fluctuated and then rebounded within the day, but above1814The first line was blocked, and then the market fluctuated and retreated, while the low point in the European session retreated to1804On the first line, the overall trend is also in line with the expected volatility and digestion trend for the day. At present, the short-term market trend may not be easy to control, and the late US market closure will also make the market trading sentiment cautious, so the overall volatility will not be significant. Stay tuned above the evening gold5Daily line1812-14Short term pressure competition, although there were punctures within the day1812As5The pressure of daily and small cycle trend lines may still become a key point of contention in the evening. According to the daily structure, if we close today5Not too much on the daily line, but above1820Frontline action10The daily pressure and trend line pressure will still have a further suppressive effect, so short-term gold can be biased towards bearish, but do not expect too much space. Technically, the overall rebound is still weak, and the current rebound is only a technical oversold rebound, making it difficult to achieve a reversal.


At present, while both the bullish and bearish directions of the gold market may occur, it is recommended to focus on observing the current market situation and follow the trend direction before participating. The short-term trend structure should be clarified first, and the trend should still be bearish, meaning that bears have the main advantage. When the rebound is blocked and suppressed, the main rhythm direction is still bearish participation, rather than disrupting the rhythm direction due to short-term low rebound. Friday, althoughVType reversal, but never breaking the bearish trend line.4The mid hour orbit will stillKThe physical part of the line is pressed to death, and has not broken through the middle track multiple times, indicating the strong pressure. Breaking through is not a result of Asahi's efforts, and it will inevitably undergo the baptism of time. It is clearly not enough now. Now gold is at a critical watershed position, while4The hourly track suppresses gold prices, and dual factors guide us to continue bearish on gold. Don't blindly take the bottom line when gold hasn't turned around. In summary, the guide for gold traders suggests that for today's gold trading, it is recommended to focus on rebounding and short selling, with retracement and long selling as a supplement, and short-term attention above1790-1795Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1755-1750Frontline support.


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