Guide Metallographer:7.4今日黄金走势分析，本周非农数据黄金看涨...

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　本周需要关注的重要事件


　　定于周二公布的中国财新服务业PMI数据将被视为新的推动因素。本周早些时候，乐观的中国制造业PMI未能帮助黄金找到需求。因此，这份报告不太可能对黄金估值产生显著影响。


　　周三，美国将公布ISMService industryPMI数据。当天晚些时候，美联储还将公布6月政策会议记录。根据芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)美联储观察工具(Fed Watch Tool)的数据，市场目前预计美联储7Monthly interest rate hike again75The probability of a basis point is66.5%，而一周前这一概率为84%。如果美联储会议纪要提升加息75个基点的几率，那么黄金可能会面临额外的看空压力。另一方面，鸽派基调可能令美元承压，并为黄金实现反弹打开大门。


　　最后，美国劳工统计局将于周五发布6月份非农就业数据。预计6月份就业市场将失去增长动力，继5Monthly increase39万人后，6月非农就业人口料将增加25万人。投资者还将密切关注工资通胀数据。按年计算，平均时薪预计将上涨5.2%, and5月份持平。除非非农就业数据出现负面的意外，否则高于预期的薪资增长可能会提振美元，反之亦然。


　　值得注意的是，黄金与10年期美国国债收益率的负相关关系本周继续走弱。市场可能正在重新评估通胀前景，并对通胀已经见顶的看法变得更加乐观。这或许可以解释作为一种传统通胀对冲工具的黄金与美国国债收益率的联动性为何为减弱。因此，任何指向物价压力缓解的言论或市场动向都可能引发类似的市场反应。


Technical analysis of gold:


Last week, the overall trend of gold continued to fluctuate and decline unilaterally, and the most crucial thing last week was to break through1802Support. And it's breaking down1802Afterwards, there was an accelerated sell-off trend, and in the end1784There is support here, although there has been a rebound in volatility, the overall structure is still bearish. Even if there is a rebound this week, the overall expectation is to see further7month7The low point will only occur around the th, and there will be a significant rebound in the market afterwards. Therefore, structurally speaking, the overall trend is still mainly bearish, but7month7After the 11th, there may be a retaliatory rebound in the market through non agricultural activities. Also, it's important to focus on1780If we break the position, we will further see a bearish outlook1750And1720Support. And in the future, the overall focus will be on1858Breaking through the pressure is the key core, but I am bearish in the future1750Nearby, short-term, gold1The morning star form at the bottom of the hour level. Overall, the guidelines for gold operations today suggest that the main focus should be on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by stepping back on low altitudes, with short-term attention from above1820-1825Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1795Frontline support.


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