Guide Metallographer:7.1今日黄金走势分析，金价失守千八，再创新低

　　近期有哪些消息面影响goldcrude oilTrend? Where is the trend of gold going?


Friday(7month1day)亚市尾盘，美元指数维持在104.85附近。现货黄金短线突然大幅下跌，金价已经跌破1800dollar/盎司。亚市尾盘金价短线急跌，最低一度触及1792dollar/盎司，目前位于1794dollar/盎司左右。欧美央行激进的加息策略持续升温，虽然隔夜美国通胀数据显示，通胀有下降的迹象。但短期内美国通胀仍然持续高位，同时美国总统拜登迫切需要压低通胀。这些因素，将会导致美联储主席鲍威尔在面对通胀的时候，更为强硬。强硬的政策，未来一两个月会继续给金价带来沉重压力。技术面看空信号持续增强，金价有加速下滑的态势。日内交易，投资者需要密切关注美国的ISMmanufacturingPMI数据，该数据将会给晚间美国市场的情绪定下基调。同时投资者还要关注，俄乌局势等相关消息。


　　香港时间周五22:00Investors will welcome the United States6monthISMManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)。这是日内最受关注的经济指标，预计将再度引发市场行情。权威媒体调查显示，美国6monthISMmanufacturingPMI料下滑至54.9, significantly lower than5Of56.1。分析师指出，假如美国制造业PMI优于预期，美元有望进一步走强，从而打击金价走势。在6The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in January75个基点后，美元涨幅持续收窄，一度导致10年期美国国债收益率跌至两周低点，因为市场已经完全消化加息前景。美国联邦基金futures价格显示，美联储在7月的货币政策会议上加息75The probability of a basis point is73%。市场已完全消化了近50个基点的加息预期。再此环境之下，黄金在整个6月一直呈现弱势，一直在走慢跌空间，6月最后一个交易日，触及1802低点，呈现极弱状态，7月市场主要关注点，也在地缘局势方面和美联储加息75个基点影响上，暂时看不出黄金可能走出多大的上涨空间，也看不出大跌的空间，再者7月初有非农数据影响，先看完非农数据后再作决议。


　　7.1Analysis of gold market trend:


　　黄金技术面分析：昨日黄金短暂回弹1822一线后承压，延续震荡回落跌至1802附近，晚间行情出现一波异动拉升，一度将高点拉升至1825一线，但随后行情再度回落，最终回到1805附近震荡，日线收得一带有上影线的阴线。从日线结构上来看，日线4连阴，虽然暂时没有拉开布林，但已经有开口的表现，如果周五黄金再跌一波，那么日线布林就开口，黄金将在7月第一周形成极弱单边，空头可见1782低点，因此，暂时这个周期黄金保持空头优势。目前从结构上来看，黄金高点逐次降低，从1857一线，再到1847附近，其次是反弹至1840一线，至本周的1833一线，昨日反弹的高点1824均已以反弹无果之后继续回落延续下探，所以目前的行情走势较为明显，偏弱下行，震荡过程伴随反复，但是依旧有回撤空间。


　　黄金整体走势还是偏弱，本周连续下跌一周，日线级别走出四连阴的局面，每天在美盘初的反弹也是昙花一现，4小时，布林带开口向下，价格于1800美元下方震荡整理，日内需关注1790关口的破位情况，一旦破位，下一个目标就是1780一线支撑，综上所述指南金师总结：操作上考虑反弹高空为主，上方关注1805-1810USD resistance, follow below1780-1782USD support.


　　7.1Analysis of crude oil market trend:


US crude oil Thursday（6month30日）亚市盘初开盘小幅走高触及日内高位110.418dollar/桶后短线持于横盘后展开下行；美市盘中，原油扩大跌幅，刷新日内低位105.088dollar/桶，截止收盘，原油自日内低位展开回升，但二次下跌，收于105.985dollar/Bucket.


　　原油技术面来分析，日线上，隔日原油小幅刺破均线后回落，并录得中阴，再次承压，日线上，今日行情承压于均线下方，或将继续下跌；4小时上，隔日原油受阻于MA10日均线走震荡下行，当前布林带处于开口期，MAThe moving average moves out of the double dead cross,KDJThree lines forward for random indicators,MACD指标绿色动能柱持续放量，快慢线死叉向下，综合来看，日内原油尽管有回升需求，但仍处于承压之中，日内操作指南金师建议反弹做空，上方关注107.5-108.0Nearby resistance.


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