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goldMessage interpretation:
Thursday(6month30day),现货黄金破位下跌,创5month16Recently, it has reached a new low1802.52dollar/盎司,由于美元走强和各国央行的鹰派言论削弱了黄金的吸引力。各国央行决策者表示,抗通胀进程将是痛苦的,但必须迅速采取行动。
美元指数徘徊在最近二十年高点105.801下方附近,这使得以美元计价的黄金对海外买家来说更加昂贵。且投资者会担心,高利率提高了持有非孳息资产黄金的机会成本。
世界各国央行行长齐聚葡萄牙欧洲央行论坛时表示,全球抗通胀进程将是痛苦的,甚至可能导致经济增长崩溃,但必须迅速采取行动,以防止物价快速增长变得根深蒂固。
美联储须避免代价更高的错误
美联储主席鲍威尔周三重申,美联储将不惜一切代价抗通胀,即使这意味着导致经济衰退或失业率上升,美联储也不能让经济以高通胀水平长期运行。
鲍威尔表示,虽然为了将通胀率恢复到2%目标,经济存在过度放缓的风险,但他不同意这是相对更大的风险,最大的错误是无法恢复价格稳定。
美联储政策制定者现在预计,到年底联邦基金利率目标将提高至3.4%,大约是目前1.5%to1.75%水平的两倍,且高于他们认为开始长期限制经济所需的水平。
鲍威尔表示,美国经济仍然“处于相当强劲的状态”,他认为经济能够应对更紧缩的信贷条件,同时避免衰退甚至失业率大幅上升。但他表示,随着高通胀持续时间更长,通往所谓“软着陆”的路径将变得“越来越具有挑战性”,而且公众对工资和价格的预期最终也可能加速,政策制定者尤其要适应这种风险。
克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特在欧洲央行论坛上表示,政策制定者曾经认为,更大的风险在于过于激进地抑制通胀并在此过程中放弃就业和经济增长,但冠状病毒大流行已经改变了风险平衡,“代价更高的错误是我们认为通胀预期已经、但实际并没有被锚定。”
ActivTrades的高级分析师Ricardo Evangelista表示,通常情况下,黄金在高通胀时期往往表现良好,但“由于各国央行、尤其是美联储的激进立场,黄金正遭受重创,这表明他们控制通胀愿望强烈,无论可能给整个经济带来什么痛苦。”
FXStreetanalystDhwani Mehta指出,金价仍面临下行风险,但“(将在日内稍后公布的)5月美国核心PCE物价指数年率料从前值4.9%Descend to4.8%。若该数据走软,则表明通胀正在见顶,促使投资者相信美联储可能放慢紧缩周期。因此,若数据符合或低于预期,美元将跟随收益率下跌,黄金可能会吸引新的需求。”
Analysis of Gold Technology;
日线上,隔日黄金承压于MA10日均线展开下跌,盘中录得带长上影线的小阴,日线上,今日行情开盘继续承压均线下行,日内保持看跌;4小时上,隔日黄金承压于中轨下方运行,晚间一度刺破后回落,当前布林带处于开口期,MA均线走出死叉三线向下,KDJThree lines of random indicators converge downwards,MACD指标绿色动能柱持续放量,快慢线死叉向下。综合来看,黄金目前有测试千八可能。黄金操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主,回调低多为辅,上方重点关注1825-1830Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800Frontline support.
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