Guide Metallographer:6.30今日黄金走势分析，金价冲高回落加剧震荡

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　周三公布的美国第一季度实际GDPRecorded final value of annualized quarterly rate-1.6%, lower than market expectations-1.5%。美国第一季度核心PCERecord of the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of the price index5.2%Higher than market expectations5.1%；美国第一季度实际个人消费支出季率终值录得1.8%, lower than market expectations3.1%。


　　评论称，美国政府周三数据证实，创记录的贸易逆差拖累美国第一季经济，美国第一季度实际GDPRecorded final value of annualized quarterly rate-1.6%，但由于美国国内需求强劲，这一数据存在误导性。上个季度GDP下滑也反映出，由于供应链混乱和工人短缺，企业库存积累速度较第四季的快速增长有所放缓。但4月份消费者支出加速，经济似乎已经从第一季度的低迷中反弹。


　　美联储主席鲍威尔表示，降低通货膨胀的过程将带来一些痛苦。美联储完全理解通胀上升带来的痛苦。更大的风险在于无法恢复价格稳定。自去年秋天以来，市场大体上与美联储的走向保持一致。软着陆是可能的，但将相当具挑战性。在劳动力市场强劲的情况下，有办法恢复2%的通货膨胀率，但不能保证。经济能够承受货币政策举措。美国经济形势强劲。


　　美联储官员美斯特表示，希望明年美国利率高于4%，加息对于降通胀非常有必要。她提倡加息75个基点。她还称，美国通胀可能会进一步上升，企业和家庭的长期通胀预期将继续上升，但利率正朝“更正常的水平”迈进，并预计美国经济不会衰退。


　　欧洲央行委员Simkus表示，如果经济数据恶化，希望7Monthly interest rate increase50Basis points.9月很有可能加息50个基点；欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼称，在9月后可能以25-50个基点的步伐加息；欧洲央行管委温施表示，明年3月前加息150个基点是合理的，预计7月前加息25个基点是“板上钉钉的事情”。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day3.77Tons, current position is1052.63Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is13.3%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is86.7%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50、75The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is9.9%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is68.4%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is21.7%。


Today's Focus:


　　14:00UK Q1GDPAnnual rate final value


　　14:00britain6monthNationwideMonthly rate of housing price index


　　14:00英国第一季度经常帐


　　14:30Switzerland5Monthly actual retail sales annual rate


　　14:45France6monthCPIMonthly rate


　　15:00Switzerland6monthKOFEconomic leading indicators


　　15:55Germany6Number of unemployed people after quarterly adjustment


　　15:55Germany6Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　17:00eurozone5Monthly unemployment rate


　　20:30Canada4monthGDPMonthly rate


　　20:30From the United States to6month25Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly CorePCEMonthly rate of price index


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly personal expenditure rate


　　21:30European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


　　21:45U.S.A6Month ChicagoPMI


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日探高回落收低，短线依旧胶着，但节奏上还是处于震荡向下当中，虽然短线伴随反复的冲高回落蓄势，但反弹后收不在高位。日线停旧是收低转阴的弱势走法，目前带动短期均线开始死叉向下空头发散，日线等待放量，目前处于整理蓄势当中。下行趋势线的压制依旧有效。昨日最高1832.82.minimum1812.冲高收低弱势不改。技术结构趋势偏空，短线迂回洗盘。4小时局部走不出单边，短线拉锯反复。点位比方向更重要的走法，昨日在1823一线做空以及1830上方加空，都有所斩获，趋势未改，伴随冲高择高补空，再尾盘回落收割。4小时暂时还处于下行趋势线之内运行，上轨的阻力在1840-1847.临界点未收复，短线看弱趋势不变，操作处依旧维持反弹高空看摔低1800Below.1小时图昨日伴随冲高回落的过山车，并没有走出单边，但拉锯的幅度也比较大，均线指标形成压制，综上所述指南金师总结：今日黄金操作思路上建议以反弹高空为主，回踩低多为辅，上方短期关注1835-1840Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1810-1805Frontline support.


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