Guide Metallographer:6.27黄金走势分析，消费指数低迷，黄金再度反弹

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　时间、数据及事件


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　22:00U.S.A5Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing


　　22:30U.S.A6Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for the Month


The next day01:30European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


　　美联储官员布拉德在24Japan stated that he believes that raising interest rates will slow down economic growth. At present, interest rates are still far from neutral. In this situation, raising interest rates early is a good idea. But it is too early to debate the possibility of recession. Raising interest rates early means that the Federal Reserve can nip inflation in the bud before it takes root. He also expressed his intention to raise interest rates to3.5%。 However, once the anti inflation momentum begins to form, the Federal Reserve may lower policy interest rates.2024年美联储票委戴利表示，也许会在2024年开始讨论缩表终点。他预计美国经济不会出现衰退，如果美联储的前置加息有效，美联储最终需要做的就会更少。从近期美联储主席鲍威尔以及其他联储官员的表态中不难看出，为了抑制通胀，美联储将有可能施行更为激进的紧缩政策，7月也将可能会再次加息75Basis points.


　　上周五，美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值进一步下修至50，创历史新低，较5月份数据下跌14.4%。大约79%的消费者预计未来一年的商业状况会很糟糕，这是自2009年以来最高的比例。同时，国际货币基金组织周五发表声明称，美国经济可能在2022Year and2023年放缓，但随着美联储实施其利率收紧计划以遏制通胀，美国经济将勉强避免衰退，现在的政策重点必须是在不引发衰退的情况下迅速减缓工资和物价的增长，这将是一项棘手的任务，美国经济可能面临非常重大的下行风险


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold rebounded last week and resumed its recovery after pressure testing, confirming the current weak state of the market. Today, we will pay attention to it first1820Competition, but as time passes, the probability of this position falling will also increase. Once it falls, you can pay more attention below1812-10Competition, even under the influence of extreme emotions, the market may retreat to1805-00The possibility of finding support in the area. If today's market wants to reverse, stand up1830The above is a technical requirement, but even if one stands firm1830Above, there may not be strong rebound momentum in the short term, as the current fundamentals are relatively light, and the impact on the US dollar trend in the short term should be particularly concerned. Although gold is today1822The position has gained support and rebounded, but the rebound strength is insufficient, which is different from the previous strong rebound. It also indicates that the bull strength is starting to decline, and the decline is about to start. Once the level breaks, the market will directly fall to1815even to the extent that1800Location. After the adjustment of gold volatility, we have chosen the direction again. In summary, the gold guide for today's operation suggests that the main focus should be on rebounding at high altitudes, with more rebounding at low altitudes as a supplement, and short-term attention should be paid above1848-1853Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1815Frontline support.

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