Guide Metallographer:6.27今日黄金走势分析，七国联合制俄

　　goldMessage interpretation:


The United States announced on Friday6月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值录得50, lower than market expectations50.2, previous value is50.2.


　　密西根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，通货膨胀仍然是消费者最关心的问题；47%的消费者指责通货膨胀侵蚀了他们的生活水平，仅比2008年的经济危机时期达到的历史最高点略低。6月份的预期通胀率中值为5.3%，与月中或之前的四个月相比没有什么变化。相比之下，长期预期从月中的3.3%Descend to3.1%，回到了过去10个月中的2.9-3.1%的范围内。消费者对长期通胀的不确定性也达到了1991年以来的最高水平，延续了2021年开始的大幅增长。：6月份的终值证实了6月初消费者情绪的下降，比初值低0.2个指数点，比5月份低14.4%，是有记录以来的最低读数。不同收入、年龄、教育、地理区域、政治派别、持股和房屋所有权状况的消费者都出现了大幅下降。大约79%的消费者预计未来一年的商业状况会很糟糕，这是自2009年以来最高的。


　　国际货币基金组织周五发表声明称，美国经济可能在2022Year and2023年放缓，但随着美联储实施其利率收紧计划以遏制通胀，美国经济将“勉强避免衰退”。现在的政策重点必须是在不引发衰退的情况下迅速减缓工资和物价的增长，这将是一项棘手的任务。


　　IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃表示，在消费者受到高能源和食品价格冲击的时候，(U.S.A)取消关税将是相当有针对性的。明年全球粮食形势可能会恶化。认为美国经济面临“非常重大”的下行风险。美国经济衰退持续的时间可能会很短。国际货币基金组织认为美国避免经济衰退的道路狭窄，我们必须认识到局势的不确定性。将2022年美国经济增长预测从3.7%Down to2.9%, will2023年增长预测从2.3%Down to1.7%。


　　美联储官员布拉德表示，他认为加息将减缓经济增长速度。就目前而言，利率仍远未达到中性。在这种情况下，提前加息是个好主意。但现在就衰退可能性展开辩论为时尚早。提前加息意味着美联储可以在通胀根深蒂固之前将其扼杀在萌芽状态。他还表示想在今年利率将上调至3.5%。 However, once the anti inflation momentum begins to form, the Federal Reserve may lower policy interest rates.


　　高盛分析，衰退不是我们的基线预测，增长确实明显低于趋势。这将令失衡的劳动力市场恢复平衡，并最终帮助通胀回落。数据显示，6The long-term inflation expectations of American consumers at the University of Michigan decreased in June, which led to a rise in the stock market. The report shows that long-term inflation expectations are reported from the initial values14年高点回落，进而可能降低美联储更陡峭加息的紧迫性。我们的预测是到2022At the end of the year, the terminal interest rate is3.25%to3.5%Expected2023年不会再加息，主要是因为经济在减速，通胀在下降，美联储可能会维持利率在这个水平不变。


　　分析称，欧元区6月整体通胀率可能升至8.4%，创下新纪录，主要受能源和食品价格上涨影响，5Month is8.1%。潜在价格压力也在上升；预计6月份核心通胀率将从5Of3.8%Ascend to3.9%。尽管德国政府从本月初开始对汽车燃油实施减税，西班牙自6月中以来对发电成本实施上限，但6月份欧元区能源成本可能再次上升。俄罗斯对欧洲的天然气供应受阻后，天然气价格出现新的上涨，未来几个月能源账单面临上行风险。随着俄乌冲突扰乱了农业大宗商品市场，食品价格也在快速上涨，预计未来几个季度这些压力将继续传递给消费者。另外，核心通胀率也在上升，受到非能源工业品和服务价格的推动。


Geopolitical situation:


According toBNO新闻：截至当地时间周日稍晚，俄罗斯两次未能偿付外币债券。当天是俄罗斯向债券持有人支付1亿美元债和欧元债30天宽限期结束的日子，这将使俄罗斯自1918年以来首次出现外债违约。预计俄罗斯外债违约不会对俄罗斯经济或市场产生直接影响。投资者一直认为违约即将到来。


　　据一位知情人士透露，美国总统拜登和七国集团其余领导人将达成协议，宣布禁止从俄罗斯进口新的黄金。这将是针对俄罗斯的最新制裁。知情人士称，七国集团领导人们将在德国举行的峰会上宣布这一联合承诺，峰会从周日持续到下周二。美国财政部将于下周二发布进口禁令。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day2.03Tons, current position is1061.04Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is17.4%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is82.6%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50、75The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is12.2%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is63.0%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is24.8%。


Today's Focus:


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　22:00U.S.A5Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing


　　22:30U.S.A6Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for the Month


The next day01:30European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


The daily level fluctuates and falls;KDJSlightly dead fork,MACDGlued but with green bars appearing, the moving average starts to be bearish, and the short-term gold price tends to fluctuate downward, initially supporting the Bollinger Line's lower track1814.56Nearby, if the support falls below this level, the gold price may initiate a new round of decline, further supporting the1800Stronger support near integer levels5Monthly low point1786.70Nearby. In addition,6month14Daily low point1804.98There may also be some support nearby. Given that the current gold price is still in a volatile trend, it is necessary to pay attention to the support of bargain hunting,5Daily moving average and10The daily moving average resistance is currently at1831.50Nearby,200The resistance of the daily moving average and the Bollinger line in the middle track1844.60Nearby, if the position can be recovered, increase the short-term bullish signal; Further resistance in1850Near the integer level, and then6month16Resistance to daily highs1857.39Nearby. From a broader perspective, gold prices are1821.72USD to1847.95The USD range fluctuates up and down.20Period and50Moving Average of Futures IndexEMALocated at1828.30USD and1831.58The US dollar is declining, which strengthens the downward trend. Meanwhile, Relative strength indexRSI（14）Showing signs of losing downward momentum. Momentum oscillation index40.00水平附近获得支撑。综上所述，黄金周一操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方重点关注1838-1843Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1808-1813Frontline support.


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