Guo Shengshan:6.23晚间黄金暴涨只是昙花一现？思路不变继续看空

　goldMarket trend analysis:

Federal ReserveFOMCpublish6月利率决议，和市场预期一致加息75个基准点，并上调通胀预期。美联储预计未来几个月经济将放缓，失业率上升，美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了7Monthly interest rate hike75个基点的预期，如果通胀趋于平缓，美联储可能不需要那么激进地加息。为了让通胀回落，美联储宁愿让失业率上升，并冒着经济衰退的风险，大幅加息，预示沃尔克时代又回来了。近日，多份美国媒体民意调查显示，随着通胀持续上升以及对经济衰退的担忧，美国总统拜登的支持率又创新低。最新民调结果显示，有56%的受调民众对拜登的表现不认可，而认可其表现的民众为39%。美联储试图通过迅速收紧利率来给经济降温，黄金市场陷入了一场拉锯战。

　　四小时震荡下行被一根大阳拉升直接从底拉升至顶，打破了原有的震荡下行格局，虽然强势的拉升至1850关口，但近期多空延续性较差，处于低位反复震荡，所以今日也不一定就涨，要涨的话隔夜就会继续涨了，而不是承压跌回1840之下。毕竟本月开始接近尾声，而近期一直说的月线顶部一根冲高回落倒锤子线之后连收两阴，奠定了6月份看空势头，那么本月来看空头基础上压制多头，也就是冲高回落走势。那么今日重点关注就是1850关口压力，若是跌破1835个人建议可以跟空，亚欧盘下方关注1825Nearby support.

Golden Operation Strategy:1845Near empty, stop loss1852, Objective1838-1833

Golden Operation Strategy:1825Nearby, stop loss1819, Objective1832-1836

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Thursday（6month23During the Asian session, US Oil fell slightly and is currently trading at103.80dollar/Near the bucket, in the morningAPIData shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories rose last week, and US President Biden called for a suspension of gasoline taxes. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, concerns about an economic recession have weighed on oil prices. Analysts say that "oil prices have fluctuated as the Federal Reserve's commitment to curb inflation" has shaken the confidence of investors using crude oil as an inflation hedge, posing a challenge to market liquidity as volatility also affects traders and investors, making crude oil vulnerable to significant fluctuations. "Investors are concerned that the Fed's interest rate hike may lead to a recession in the US economy, thereby suppressing demand for fuel. American Petroleum Institute(API)According to data, US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased last week, while distillate inventories decreased. As of6month17During the current week, crude oil inventories increased by approximately560Ten thousand barrels, gasoline inventory increases120Ten thousand barrels, while distillate oil inventories decreased by approximately170Ten thousand barrels. Overall, US President Biden has called for a suspension of gasoline taxes, increased inventories, heightened concerns about economic recession, and many bearish factors weighing on oil prices. Oil prices may return in the short term100Gateway; But we also need to be vigilant about the latest US sanctions against Russia at the G7 summit, as well as whether Biden's call for a suspension of gasoline taxes can be passed in Congress.

　　原油技术面分析：原油日线级别震荡下跌，MACDDead fork,KDJ死叉，短期均线向下发散，油价失守55Daily moving average and100日均线，布林线开口，油价后市偏向沿布林线下轨向下运行，初步支撑参考隔夜低点101.54Nearby, then100整数关口附近支撑，进一步支撑在5month11Daily low point98.20Nearby,4month25Daily low point support at95.28Nearby, strongly supported4month11Daily low point92.93附近，如果金价失守100关口，油价可能会跌至该支撑附近，但短线跌破该支撑的难度相对较大。鉴于目前100整数关口附近支撑也比较强，一些短线空头离场和部分逢低买盘涌现，油价也存在震荡调整的机会，初步阻力在100Daily moving average105.46Nearby,5Daily moving average resistance107.78附近，收复该位置前，后市偏向空头，55The daily moving average resistance is currently at109.30附近，若能收复该位置，则增加油价短线见底的可能性。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上郭晟衫建议以反弹高空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期重点关注108.2-108.7Frontline resistance, short-term focus below104.4-103.9Frontline support.

Author/Guo Sheng Shirt

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.