ATFXCanada and the United KingdomCPIData, all created39New Year High

Economic aspect:
Yesterday, Statistics Canada released data showing that,5monthCPIThe year-on-year growth rate is7.7%, higher than the previous value6.8%, creating near39Annual high; According to data released by the British Bureau of Statistics,5monthCPIYear-on-year growth9.1%, higher than the previous value9%, creating near40New year high. In the United StatesCPIThe growth rate remains high, and the problem of high inflation in Canada and the UK is also becoming increasingly severe. Since the beginning of this year, the Bank of Canada has raised interest rates three times by25Base point50Base point50Base point, latest benchmark interest rate1.5%The intention to accelerate austerity is very clear. Bank of Canada Governor McLean recently stated in his speech that interest rates will be raised to3%The above possibilities increase. According to each interest rate increase50The calculation of the range of basis points is expected to reach McLehm's regulatory target level after three more interest rate decisions.

The Bank of England has raised interest rates five times by15Base point25Base point25Base point25Base point25Base point, latest benchmark interest rate1.25%Although it has not reached a single occurrence50The amplitude of the base point, but with a higher frequency, also reveals the intention to accelerate tightening. Bank of Australia Governor Philip Law recently stated that the inflation rate for the fourth quarter is expected to reach7%The Bank of Australia will be prepared for further interest rate hikes and will dynamically adjust monetary policy based on economic data. It can be seen that the policy of radical interest rate hikes is likely to continue this year.

Monetary tightening policies can to some extent curb high inflation, but they can also cause economic recession. What banks in various countries need to do is to raise interest rates to curb inflation while observing unemployment data to avoid economic recession. The unemployment rate data in the United States has been updated since the beginning of the year4%Keep descending to the current level3.6%In a very healthy state, there are no signs of economic recession yet. Canada's unemployment rate data is also in a downward trend, but the latest value is as high as5.1%At the standard of healthy unemployment rate5%Above all, it is most likely that an economic recession will occur due to monetary tightening. The latest unemployment rate in the UK3.8%The absolute value is relatively healthy. However,4Compared to the monthly unemployment rate3The month has risen0.1One percentage point, this is a dangerous signal that the Bank of England's frequent rate hikes are hitting the labor market.

The 10-year treasury bond bond yields of the United Kingdom and Canada are both at relatively high levels in recent years, which is a signal of economic recovery. As long as the future central bank's interest rate hike policy does not lead to a significant increase in unemployment rates, it means that the economies of Western countries will shift from2008The subprime crisis and2010Completely emerged from the shadow of the European debt crisis in. The logic behind it is that the excess production capacity on a global scale before the pandemic was forced to be cleared due to the prolonged pandemic. The rapidly recovering demand side after the epidemic is re driving the rapid growth of the supply side.

Trading face:
After a rapid increase in early this month,USDCADCurrently in a short-term volatile state. Our US dollar index7The trend before the end of the month holds a volatile view, so it is important toUSDCADThe basic judgment is also fluctuating. Looking at the long-term trend,USDCADofKThe center of gravity of the line is slowly moving upwards, and this slow rise will continue until there is a substantial turning point in the high pollution problem in the United States.
Unlike Canadian dollars,GBPUSDThe bearish trend is more significant, and the cumulative decline over the past year has been close to15%, much higher thanUSDCADof7.61% 。 In the short term,GBPUSDThere is also a certain degree of oscillation performance, but due to the severe decline in the early stage, it is expected that the oscillation state will not last for too long. The support level below is1.1935It is highly likely to be broken.

ATFXAnalyst team concise viewpoint:USDCADPartial oscillation,GBPUSDDeflection.

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.