Guo Shengshan:6.22黄金还会持续下跌吗？原油走势分析

　goldMarket trend analysis;

Wednesday(6month22day)In the early morning trading of the Asian market, spot gold suddenly plunged, causing the gold price to fall below1830dollar/Ounces, US dollar index is currently showing an upward trend, current report104.60Nearby. The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on gold prices. In addition, the United States10The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds rose more than1%This has reduced the attractiveness of gold, while earlier this month the Federal Reserve conducted a self1994The largest interest rate hike since the beginning of the year is expected to occur by the Federal Reserve7We will continue to raise interest rates significantly in the month. Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates75After a few basis points, gold rebounded strongly for a while and then remained stable. In addition, analysts point out that in a bearish market region of the stock market, the returns provided by gold are more attractive and less correlated than other traditional safe haven assets. At present, these factors have prevented large-scale unwinding events for gold, but proprietary traders continue to hold a large number of speculative long positions in gold that may be complacent. In the end, under the heavy pressure of the hawkish Federal Reserve, there is still a downward bias. The Federal Reserve has officially raised interest rates this month75Bps to1.50-1.75%。 It is worth noting the guidance for the upcoming monetary policy. In addition, Powell5Interest rate hike announced at the monthly monetary policy meeting75A basis point is not within the scope of consideration. Nevertheless, Powell went beyond his statement and made a significant interest rate hike. It is important to understand the choice of raising interest rates75The concept behind the basis point. The actions of central banks are generally in line with those of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, with the former hoping to raise interest rates soon50One basis point, while the latter hopes to increase tightening efforts. Guo Shengshan believes that investors can currently wait for key congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which may provide important guidance on the trend of gold prices on this trading day.

　　黄金技术面分析；黄金昨日震荡小幅回落收跌，长时间陷入横向窄幅震荡，美盘时段先反抽1843.3Under pressure on the first line, the tail end fell and closed at a low level1830Below, the space is still not moving much, but structurally it is still in the process of downward oscillation and decline. As the rebound strength weakens, the short line approaches the low point of the downward trajectory, but the rhythm is relatively slow and there is no obvious unilateral movement, presenting as a weak oscillation.4Hours have been trading sideways for two consecutive days this week without any signs of reaching a high, as they fell behind yesterday1830The low point indicates that the short term is unable to further touch the high and upward trend, but instead weakens and returns to the east after consolidation. Currently4The hour structure broke through the previous upward trend line of rebound, and the reverse weak trend fell back, reaching yesterday's high point1843.30To defend, let's take a look at the market today and see if it will fall. It is expected that the market will be weak and the white market will first lower.1The hour chart shows slight passivation. Accompanied by a consolidation style decline, but the space has not been released. After a long period of horizontal consolidation, the short-term rhythm is still oscillatory, and the direction is in a downward trend. After yesterday's high and low, the short-term trend will weaken first. Short term bearish. Overall, in terms of the short-term operation strategy for gold today, Guo Shengshan suggests focusing on rebounding from high altitude, supplemented by going long by stepping back, with short-term attention from above1840-1845Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1815Frontline support.

　　crude oilTrend analysis:

　　油价周二上涨，因夏季燃料需求高涨，而由于俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突后其石油受到制裁，供应仍然紧张。上周这两大指标合约都录得了周跌幅。对于美国原油来说，这是八周以来的第一次周线下跌，而对于布伦特原油来说，这是五周以来的首次。美国近月合约futuresof50日移动均线触及2008年以来的最高点，布伦特期货50日移动均线触及2013年以来的最高点。埃克森美孚公司首席执行官Darren Woods预测三到五年内石油市场将相当紧张，油价获得了支持。维多公司负责人Russell Hardy指出，投资不足，原油产能下降，炼油形势紧张。 白宫已经要求六家石油公司的首席执行官参加周四的会议，讨论如何降低高能源价格。

　　原油在预测点109.2支撑中走出延续上涨，最高在111.2，有20美金，但午夜没有延续力度，走出回落空间，形成弱势状态，按照目前走势，暂时原油还是要延续弱势看一波空头下跌。很明显，日线在低位收阳后没有延续强势，*在单边均线之下，表现弱势，日线如果拉开布林下跌，跌势空间就会拉开，暂时能预测的点位在H4Cycle, the low point of the previous decline is106.3，H4The low point of104.8So, with this as the target for intraday bearish sentiment, pay attention to106.3，104.8The gains and losses. Focus on the high point of short selling with the trend109，110两个点位，预计欧盘反弹有高点，在*点位表现有效下即可交易，美盘走出顺势空间。

Author/Guo Sheng Shirt

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.