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goldMessage interpretation:
上周,黄金价格大起大落,最终以阴线收盘,下跌逾1%。高通胀的现实和预期促使黄金价格在周初创下5month9New high in recent days1878.65dollar/盎司,但美联储加息预期因此迅速改变,价格随后大跌。美联储随后兑现预期,加息75个基点,单次加息幅度创1994年以来新高。随后,美联储主席鲍威尔在议息会议后的公开讲话,明确表示75个基点的加息不常见,弱化了7Monthly interest rate hike again75个基点的可能性,让市场紧绷的情绪松弛了下来,加上美联储预计未来几个月经济增长将放缓,使得美元和美债收益率大幅回落,黄金多头大举反攻。
当前由于美国债收益率飙升3.39%,黄金本月经历了长时间的横盘震荡,一方面,长期的通胀似乎没有消失的迹象,市场的避险情绪依然强劲,另一方面,黄金仍有强劲的基本面支撑,俄乌地缘局势紧张、金融市场动荡、通胀威胁加剧和滞胀风险上升将继续支撑金价,同时,最近加密货币的崩盘使得被其夺走的资金将重新流回黄金市场。预计后市美联储兑现其鹰派立场,美元走强和债券收益率回升将限制黄金价格。但是,由于黄金将继续受到尚未结束的俄乌冲突、全球通胀上升以及仍在持续的新冠大流行支撑,跌幅空间也是有限。
Technical analysis of gold:
日线级别震荡;金价在布林线下轨附近获得支撑后反弹,目前收复了布林线中轨,KDJReestablish a golden fork,MACD死叉信号被破坏,短线偏向进一步试探布林线上轨1878.21附近阻力,也可以参考55Daily moving average1780.15附近阻力,如果进一步上破,则增加中线看涨信号,进一步阻力参考100Daily moving average1892.03And then1900整数关口附近阻力。短线的话,隔夜高点1857.49and1870附近也还分别存在一些阻力。下方200日均线和布林线中轨支撑在1843附近,周二高点1831.43附近也存在一些支撑,如果失守该位置,则增加短线看空信号。进一步支撑在隔夜低点1815.17附近,布林线下轨支撑目前在1807.83附近。日线图上看,金价处在自1805The upward trend of the US dollar opening(c)Wave, upward resistance looking towards(c)wave76.4%Target bit1868USD.(c)Waves are from1786The upward trend of the US dollar opening((ii))The sub waves of the waves.((ii))Waves are from1998The downward trend of the US dollar openingC浪的子浪。综上所述,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主,回调低多为辅,上方重点关注1852-1857Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1828-1823Frontline support.
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