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goldMessage interpretation:
美国劳工局公布数据显示,美国5monthPPIMonthly rate is0.8%, higher than the previous value0.5%,符合市场预期。黄金ETF持仓数据显示,6month14dayETF持仓数据下降4.93吨。黄金在昨日震荡下行,最低下探至1805附近,创近一个月以来的新低。白银最低下探至20.88附近,逼近前期低点。
奥密克戎新亚变种在欧洲、美国迅速传播。欧洲疾控中心发出预警称,新型变种传播速度更快,将导致更多的确诊、住院甚至是死亡病例出现。英国统计局公布数据显示,截止6month10日当周,英国有近99万人确诊,英国当局认为,本次感染人数增加或许是新型变种病毒所致。值得注意的是,猴痘病毒在英国迅速扩散。截止至6month12日,英国累计报告确诊猴痘病毒病例达470Example.
Early Thursday, Beijing time2点,将迎来美联储利率决议,本次利率决议还将公布点阵图等一系列数据。随后2点半,鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。针对本次议息会议,市场普遍认为美联储会维持加息50个基点的决定,但并不排除75个基点的可能性。我认为,美联储本次会议加息50个基点的概率依旧较高,而随后的发布会上或将释放鹰派信号,75个基点将纳入鲍威尔的考虑范围内。如果鲍威尔在发布会上释放出更为鹰派的信号,金银将进一步下探。如果本次决议会议并未释放出强势的鹰派信号,金银或将触底反弹。
Technical analysis of gold:
黄金从技术面来看,黄金昨日先反弹后下跌,反弹在1831.80一线承压后,由于对美联储将以较预期更大幅度加息的预期不断升温。美元强势上扬,令金价承压,黄金回落击穿前一日的低点并收在之下。日线收成一根中阴K线,日线双连阴落收低,同时顶开了下轨。昨日亚盘时段受到布林道下轨支撑先走反弹,尾盘承压回落收低,隔日开盘在低位,日线双阴有延续。目前K线形态走弱,昨日盘中在1827一带做空看破1810低点,今日进一步看延续。4小时此前高位回落吐形成一浪下行,昨日反弹1831.80受阻后继续走二浪下行延续,目前空间上还有进一步释放,从一浪的下行空间来看,目前二浪空间还没展开。只是破低之后的确认延续,空间还有进一步的扩大。预计会到1800之下,留意之前的低点处1786。1小时图反弹修正后再破低走弱,构造小台阶震荡下跌,前一日反弹修正的高点1731.80是今日的空头防守点,短线依托此位做防守继续反弹看空。综上所述,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主,回调低多为辅,上方重点关注1831-1836Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1808-1803Frontline support.
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