Guide Metallographer:6.15今日黄金走势分析，黄金连续三周扩散型

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　随着市场要求美联储(FED)采取更激进措施的呼声越来越高，黄金市场仍面临巨大的抛售压力，金价可能会跌破1800dollar/盎司。分析师指出，若收盘位于这一水平下方，金价可能还要进一步大跌。

　　美联储已于当地时间周二开始为期两天的货币政策会议，预计将加息50个基点。然而，上周五公布的美国消费者物价指数(CPI)显示，上个月美国的通胀年率达到8.6%，高于此前市场普遍预期，并刷新40The highest level in years.

　　芝加哥商业交易所(CME)的“美联储观察工具(FedWatch Tool)”显示，市场目前认为美联储周三加息75The probability of a basis point is90.5%。若如此，这将是美联储27年来首次采取如此激进的举措。

　　FXTM高级研究分析师Lukman Otunuga表示：“金价周一大幅下跌近3%，原因在于投资者认为，在上周五的通胀数据出炉后，美国有可能加息75个基点。如果美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)发表鹰派言论，或暗示美联储将继续积极加息，那么周三金价可能会遭遇更多痛苦。”

　　Otunuga指出，若日收盘位于1800dollar/盎司下方，则可能预示着金价将跌向1765dollar/ounce.

　　瑞讯银行(Swissquote Bank)Senior AnalystIpek Ozkardeskaya指出，唯一吸引投资者资本的资产是美元。

Thursday Hong Kong Time02:00Federal Open Market Commission(FOMC)Interest rate resolutions, policy statements, and economic expectations will be announced. Thursday Hong Kong Time02:30Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy.

　　素有“美联储传声筒”之称的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos周一发布报道称，美联储本周可能加息75Basis points.Timiraos在报道中写道：“美联储官员们曾暗示在本周和7月会议上各加息50个基点，但美联储也称，这取决于经济发展是否符合预期。最近几天令人不安的通胀报告可能会让美联储官员在本周的FOMC会议上，考虑高于预期的75个基点加息幅度。

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金昨日先反弹后下跌，反弹在1831.80一线承压后，由于对美联储将以较预期更大幅度加息的预期不断升温。美元强势上扬，令金价承压，黄金回落击穿前一日的低点并收在之下。日线收成一根中阴K线。日线双连阴落收低。同时顶开了下轨。昨日亚盘时段受到布林道下轨支撑先走反弹，尾盘承压回落收低，隔日开盘在低位，日线双阴有延续。目前K线形态走弱。今日进一步看延续。

　　4小时此前高位回落吐形成一浪下行，昨日反弹1831.80受阻后继续走二浪下行延续，目前空间上还有进一步释放，从一浪的下行空间来看，目前二浪空间还没展开。只是破低之后的确认延续，空间还有进一步的扩大。预计会到1800之下，留意之前的低点处1786。1小时图反弹修正后再破低走弱，构造小台阶震荡下跌，前一日反弹修正的高点1731.80是今日的空头防守点，短线依托此位做防守继续反弹看空。

　　综合来看，今日黄金操作思路上建议以反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1835-1840Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1795Frontline support. If the downward trend continues, then we need to focus on the previous low point1785Supported testing.

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