Guide Metallographer:6.13美联储加息预期升高，黄金遇阻承压下跌

　　goldMessage interpretation:

Monday(6month13day)进入欧市盘中，市场避险情绪强烈，欧美股市重挫不已，上周炽热的美国通胀加剧了市场对各国央行在本周采取更激进政策收紧的担忧。美债收益率进一步攀升，金价脱离一个月高位，目前逼近1850USD.

　　金价周一从稍早触及的一个月高位回落，因美国通胀数据提振公债收益率(Yield rate)，并削弱对黄金避险的需求。

　　欧市盘中，现货黄金目前徘徊在1855美元，自此前触及的一个月高位1880附近回落，美元和美债收益率双双攀升打压黄金。

　　在经济危机时期，黄金通常被视为避险资产。今日稍早，黄金触及5month9日以来最高，达到1,877.05USD.

　　不过，指标美国10Annual bond yield(Yield rate)Also rising to5month9日以来最高，打压零收益黄金需求。与此同时，美元指数持续攀升，逼近105Gateway.

　　“在我看来，黄金与美元反向波动脱钩的事实表明，市场(由于通胀数据)姗姗来迟地进入了一种更强烈的风险规避模式，”OANDASenior AnalystJeffrey HalleySay.

United States5月消费者物价指数加速上涨，暗示美联储可能在9月前继续加息50个基点，以对抗通胀。

　　美国劳工统计局公布的5Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)意外同比上涨8.6%，从环比来看，5月份通胀率上升了1%，4Month is0.3%。剔除不稳定的食品和汽油价格的“核心”通胀率在5月份比去年同期上升了6%，超过了预期的5.9%。这一数据引发华尔街担忧通胀在美国经济中已变得更加根深蒂固，这可能会促使美联储官员采取更严厉的措施，以减缓飙升的成本。

Technical analysis of gold:

Early Gold Rush2070The position was hindered, thus initiating the pace of a downward wave and ushering in a continuous decline1786位置得以支撑，主要还是受美联储加息缩表影响一路走低。目前大多数美联储官员支持在接下来的几次会议上加息50个基点，加之5monthCPI数据得到大幅增速，增加了美联储在6Month7Month and9月政策会议上每次都加息50个基点的预期。黄金上周五迎来了惊天逆袭，下探1825低位后展开了V型强势反转，多头单边报复性上涨，直接突破1850大关飞奔1875高位，整整拉升50美金强势收尾，日线下探回升直接从底拉升至布林上轨顶部位置。

　　黄金今日亚欧盘并未延续涨势，而是高开受阻1878位置回落，目前已经跌破1860支撑至1850附近，回调的幅度与力度都比较大，看来这黄金峰回路转有杀多的嫌疑。可惜啊，黄金果然还是冲高回落，只是反弹没到1890预期位置就开始走低了，现在日线的调整4浪或许已经完成，接下来就是主跌浪的第5浪走低了，既然是主跌浪那么肯定是一浪比一浪低，之上也得测试1800附近。加上一直说的月线顶部一根冲高回落倒锤子线之后连收两阴，奠定了6月份看空势头，那么本月来看就是冲高回落了，只是需要时间与契机。因市场普遍预期美联储下周将加息50个基点，将联邦基准利率推升至1.25%-1.5%区间。美联储料仍将选择在7Monthly interest rate hike again50个基点，如果这一决定得到证实，也不应令人感到意外。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方重点关注1845-1850Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1824-1819Frontline support.

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