Guide Metallographer:6.13今日黄金走势分析，市场高通胀黄金冲天

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　“上周五晚间，美国6月密歇根消费者信心指数公布仅为50.2，远不及预期的58, down to1940年代末调查开始以来的最低水平，加上近期世界银行、经合组织接连下调全球经济增速预期，初请失业金人数等就业前瞻数据也出现短期上行势头，市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧增强，金银受此驱动走强。”三立futures贵金属研究员柴玉荣说。

　　与此同时，上周五晚间公布的美国5monthCPI同比创新高至8.6%大超市场预期，从3月美联储启动加息至今，高通胀拐头向下证伪，市场对于美联储按照当前的加息缩表节奏能否进一步压制通胀存疑。

　　对于下周将公布的美联储6月利率决议，中信建投期货贵金属高级分析师王彦青告诉记者，前期市场预期美联储将加息50个基点，但是考虑到5月份超出市场预期的通胀数据，不排除美联储采取更加激进的紧缩政策，比如在本次利率决议中一次性加息75个基点或者向市场透露未来缩表进度的提速。下周在美联储鹰牌预期的指引下，预计美元指数将继续上行，非美市场与美国的利差进一步扩大，加速美元资产回流，这或会引发金融资产回落，甚至带来小范围流动性恐慌。

　　与美联储议息日期挂钩的掉期显示，美联储6Monthly interest rate increase at least50The probability of a basis point is100%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is28.2%，7Monthly interest rate increase at least50The probability of a basis point is100%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is43.4%，全年余下5次会议将累计加息约245个基点将利率提高至3.27%。

Technical analysis of gold:

Gold4小时线上看，黄金4小时上是明显的大区间震荡走势，目前大区间一直维持在1828-1880区间内，金价维持震荡格局已有接近四周的时间，随着时间的推移大部分时间内价格的波动幅度愈发收窄，今日开盘再度冲高至1878.9一线，现阶段金价回调到1860frontline,1根阳线直接击穿200日均线，各项指标全线转为多头，后续价格延续的概率较高。但是大阳也没有真正突破，所以本周能否突破1880就非常关键。如果直接突破则直接多，黄金虽仍有上涨动能但是不建议高位去追别忘了这周有美联储利率决议以及鲍威尔新闻发布会，目前大家将下方1855-1850一线将为近段时间的多空转折关键支撑位置。如果回踩，1855的支撑附近可先短多！综合来看，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，上方关注1880-1885Resistance, pay attention below1855-1850brace.

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