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  今天市场的焦点集中在晚上公布的欧央行利率决议上,作为全球主要经济体之一,欧洲的通胀并不比美国或者澳洲日本低,但一直维持在0利率的水平上,但这种情况目前看已经难以为继,为了遏制通胀的进一步恶化,市场开始预期欧洲将在7Month and9月开启加息之路。

  从各大投行的表态来看,最为激进的是美国银行:他们预计欧央行将宣布结束资产购买计划,7、9月各加息50个基点,全年共加息150个基点; 也就是说今年下半年开始会紧跟其他国家的步调。这对欧元本身来说是一个 比较大利多消息,当然,最终能否如预期落地还需要等今晚揭晓。

  黄金方面,本周以来的震荡,想必大家已经疲惫不堪了,十几个点的波幅虽然也不算小,但高低点着实难以精准把控,实际操作下来的话,能有6-7美金的例如已经不错了。

  至于说今天晚上美盘能不能走势震荡区间还不得而知,但随着时间的推移,这种概率再提高。

Gold trend analysis:

  黄金从日线上来看,黄金昨日下探回升,日线收成阳线十字星,双阴再转阳后,金价几乎收复了前期阴KThe downward space of the line forms a repeated tug of war,K线形态则是阴阳互换当中。暂时没有明显的单边,也或许是单边力度不足,进入拉锯震荡周期。四小时级别上看,黄金探底回升,下方回撤至1845附近止跌反弹,上方又在1860一线有争夺,目前短线结构重心还是略有抬升的,今日下方1845/1844附近依旧可能会是关键支撑,上方则关注1857-1860短压带测试,如果今日美指延续回调,则黄金上方还有进一步回弹可能,上方压力重点在1863一带测试,突破后将再次挑战0.382黄金分割位也就是1870附近。综上总结:黄金整体运行在区间徘徊,因为前期冲高遇阻,金价一直处于偏空运行中,多头虽有反弹但是力道不够,所以黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主,回踩做多为辅,上方短期关注1855-1860Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1840-1835Frontline support.

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