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  gold消息面解读:  

Wednesday(6month8day),现货黄金探低回升,因美元指数冲高回落,两者均陷于震荡模式。投资者等待即将公布的美国通胀数据,以进一步研判美联储加息前景。美国财长耶伦表示,通胀水平高到不可接受。世界银行呼吁各国决策者努力促进粮食和能源生产,避免可能导致价格进一步飙升的进出口限制

  耶伦:高通胀不可接受

  投资者现在等待即将在周五(6month10day)公布的核心消费者价格指数(CPI)。市场预计,美国5月整体与核心CPI料分别同比上涨8.3%and5.9%,美联储激进加息前景很难动摇,黄金走势很大程度上受到美联储政策左右。

  美国财政部长耶伦周二(6month7day)对参议员表示,美国当前通胀水平“不可接受”,她预计通胀将保持在高位,拜登政府可能会在其预算提案中上调今年的通胀预测。

  耶伦一再否认共和党指称总统拜登去年推出的1.9万亿美元抗疫支出助长了通货膨胀。“我们看到全球几乎所有发达国家都出现了高通胀,而且各国财政政策大相径庭,因此美国经历的大部分通货膨胀不能归咎于抗疫支出。”

  耶伦重申了她的观点,即导致恶性通胀的原因包括俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发能源和食品价格飙升、消费者在大流行期间集中采购商品以及不断出现的新冠变体使得供应链中断迟迟得不到缓解。

  近几个月来,美国消费者物价指数通胀率一直在8%以上,是40多年来的最高水平,远高于拜登政府为编制2023财年预算作出的预测。但美国核心个人消费支出价格指数已经开始降温,4月份读数录得4.9%,连续两个月下降。

  过去几周,黄金一直在横盘震荡。市场预计,美联储年内还会有4reach5次加息,投资者在关注美联储的下一步行动。如果通胀正在接近峰值并趋于平稳,那就不利于黄金上涨。

Gold trend analysis:

  黄金日线走势图上看,黄金依托上行趋势线重返1850大关收尾,日线布林三轨缩口运行,短期还是有望继续震荡。从近期规律来看都是两连阳和两连阴的走势,既然隔日收阳突破了布林中轨,那么今日若是根据规律也会收阳。个人预期本周黄金应该先跌一波才是,1858不能突破新高的可能性不大。月线顶部一根冲高回落倒锤子线之后连收两阴,由此奠定了6月份看空势头,那么依照当前的走势月线很有可能就是个震荡回落收尾。今日1858之下都是压力,下方关注1838附近支撑,破位看1831。综上所述指南金师总结:黄金在高位遇阻后出现了震荡反弹,当前空头阻力位依旧成立,所以今日操作思路上指南金师建议高空低多思路为主,上方短期关注1860-1865Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1840-1835Frontline support.

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