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  goldMessage interpretation:

  本周是美国6月加息前的市场静默期,但澳联储和欧央行本周都会宣布最新的利率决议。就在今天中午12:30,澳洲联储率先打响了第一枪,意外宣布加息50个基点,超出市场预计的25个基点的幅度,将基准利率从0.35%Up to0.85%, willforeign exchange结算余额的利率提高了50Basis points, to0.75%。

  主要还是由于澳大利亚国内通胀的显著增加,高于此前的预期。疫情造成的供应链中断和俄乌冲突是导致通胀上升的主要原因,同时澳大利亚国内一些部门的产能限制和劳动力市场紧张加剧了价格上涨的压力。

  目前西方主要经济体除了欧央行意外基本上都已经开始了大幅加息的步伐,那么现在压力来到了欧洲这边,不出意外的话7月份也将开始提高利率来控制通胀的飙升。

  所以进入6月份后半周之后(美联储加息落地),大家也可以多多关注欧元的多头表现~!

  黄金方面,周一再次走出大跌之后,金价回到了上周震荡的低点1840下方。不过从趋势上看,这里刚好处于4小时级别低点链接的上升趋势线的支撑位上。

Technical analysis of gold:

  黄金昨日先震荡回弹,测压至1856/57一线后承压回修,不过回修空间不是很大,下方至1850附近后止跌回弹,晚盘前行情再出现一波拉升,测压至1858附近,但很快又再度回落。黄金从日线上看,昨日连阴收线,强化了1874短期顶部的预期,周末我们就预测了这一点,目前200日均线再次被击穿,同时价格下破布林带中轨,空头短线占优,多头前期上破0.236position1836后但未给出大幅反弹,这表明多头没有我们预期的强度高。黄金从4小时线上看,目前行情形成头顶肩的形态,预示后市价格走低的概率极大,同时价格连阴下穿小周期均线,各指标上整体转向偏空运行。

  黄金目前走势来看在4小时级别走势上的反弹触及到前期压力位附近只有基本走完,目前K线继续承压短周期均线运行,大概率还有延续下行的空间。在日线上我们一直强调要注意破位行情的出现,也是布局新一轮中线空单的最后机会了。综合来看,今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹做空为主,回踩做多为辅,上方短期关注1852-1857Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1828-1823Frontline support.

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