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　　goldMessage surface:

The economic data released on Monday is relatively scarce.

　　瑞银分析，美国通胀已在今年3月达到顶峰。预计未来几个月通胀率会下降的主要原因是，一些商品价格的上升是受2021年特殊需求激增推动，但随着商品需求放缓，供应压力缓解，价格的正常化会使价格的变化也正常化，基数效应将会消退。

　　穆迪分析，债券的远期定价显示通货膨胀已经见顶。五年远期通胀预期已经下降到2.5%附近，这是美联储对CPI通胀目标的上限。随着通胀预期受到控制，通胀将消退。

　　报道显示，英国下议院保守党议员针对该党党首、英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊进行不信任投票。其中211位保守党议员投票支持约翰逊，148票反对。约翰逊将继续担任英国保守党党首和英国首相。根据现行规定，保守党议员一年内不得再对约翰逊发起不信任投票。不过，约翰逊拒绝排除提前大选的可能性。

The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day2.97Tons, current position is1063.07Tons.

According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6Monthly interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is0%Interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is98%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is2%； reach7Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25、50个基点、75The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is86%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is13.7%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is0.2%

Gold trend analysis:

　　黄金盘面分析，周线级别十字线，多空方向还存在拉锯争夺，短期关注1875-1828区间整理，日线级别冲高回落，大阴大阳无意义，多空延续性不足，1870上始终无法站上，而1828下也无法站稳，短期内仍旧锁定1828-1870区间内的运行；今日下方支撑关注中轨1836as well as1840Frontline, touching1838-1840计划逢低多为主，而上方短线压力关注1850-1858区域，触及可空，暂时多空继续反复震荡作为参考；4小时级别布林带有缩口迹象，日内价格反弹ma10承压回落失守中轨，附图指标macd死叉，绿色动能柱持续放量，短线黄金仍有显弱势，因此黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议还是以反弹高空为主，回踩低多为辅，上方短期关注1850-1855Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1825Frontline support.

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