Guide Metallographer:6.3今日黄金走势分析，多头发力，欲要冲上1900？

　　goldMessage surface:

　　6month1日美联储缩表政策落地，反而录得上涨，这跟过去几次货币政策会议中宣布加息后，金价反而上涨是类似的效果，这是因为缩表幅度小，且在政策落地前夕已被市场消化。此前文章中笔者分享过本轮起始于3月份的空头周期，不排除延续至六七月份的可能，但美联储有意延缓紧缩力度，推迟衰退的时间，也限制了黄金市场中期下跌空间。

　　这与08年金融危机后的收紧存在本质上的不同，从技术结构看，皆有构筑大双顶的潜质，上一轮紧缩黄金下跌空间是1900+到约1100美元，那么现在的空间2000+还能回到十年前么，显然不大现实。本次紧缩周期相伴的是历史性的大通胀，且为大萧条前夕。

　　但这不意味着多头短期内会有多大作为，毕竟，美联储货币政策处于加息缩表周期，始终对黄金白银市场构成最大压制。空头最终结束多头迎来新一轮大趋势爆发，基础条件是美联储加息加不了，缩表缩不动，这可能仍需时间。除此之外还需要诸如通胀完全失控、美元信用危机抑或新的重大地缘政治等事件助力，否则大趋势反转可能性并不大。

Gold trend analysis:

　　周三黄金走出反转行情，在多次亚欧盘弱势下跌后，多次试探1828，1830After not breaking, a bottom shape is formed, and the US stock market moves out of a sharp uptrend and reversal trend, resulting in a wave of skyrocketing space1850Long headed single day exit22In the US dollar space, the daily line closed positive near the Bollinger track, and the long and short sides once again formed a competitive battle. Today and Thursday, the data for this week will be released one after another, with a focus on the US market for the day20：15Announced Small Non FarmersADPdata20：30The announced unemployment benefit data, in the current situation where the trend is uncertain, depends on the specific impact of the data. Before the US market, short-term profits were still focused on technical aspects. from4According to the hourly analysis chart, the high point of the upper orbit is1864So, today's lower target is to see1864Looking at the impact of data on Meipan. Determine the main direction and look right during the oscillation1840The test is expected to be long at this point, and we will take a short-term look before the US market data arrives1850，1864Breaking the limit can bring about a guaranteed loss and continue to look up. If the impact of small non agricultural data is not significant,1864可能比较难破，届时再看震荡区间，等周五非农核心数据。综合来看，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议以回踩低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注1875-1880Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1855-1850Frontline support.

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