Guide Metallographer:5.31Today's gold trend analysis, Long term sideways trend of gold price

　　goldMessage surface:

　　美联储理事沃勒在当地时间周一表示，他希望继续以50Raise interest rates by one basis point until inflation falls back to the Federal Reserve's target. Waller said at an event hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability on Monday: I support tightening the policy again in a few meetings50A basis point, especially when we see the inflation rate falling close to us2%I won't give up on raising interest rates before achieving my goal50A viewpoint of one basis point. ” Waller said that his own interest rate hike plan "roughly meets" the expectations of the financial market. The market is expected to tighten this year2.5One percentage point. This expectation represents the significant degree of policy tightening, andFOMCThe commitment to bringing inflation back under control is consistent, and if we need to take more measures, we will do the same. ” Federal Reserve officials hope that they can achieve an economic soft landing by lowering prices without causing a sharp increase in unemployment. Waller expressed confidence in achieving this because the level of labor demand is very high, and each job seeker corresponds to two job vacancies. He said that the United States has never faced such a dilemma before, and the Federal Reserve can significantly reduce the job vacancy rate without affecting employment. He said, "Because we are in this very extreme situation, I think we can raise interest rates. I advocate that we do it now, and the economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates

　　另外，美国银行策略师Kamal SharmaRecently, a report was released stating that due to the common challenges faced by the pound in emerging markets, investors should address the crisis of the currency's "existence". SharmaIn the report, it is stated that currently, the Bank of England's continued interest rate hikes are still not enough to save the pound. On the contrary, the country's current account deficit, deteriorating relations with the EU over Northern Ireland, and issues surrounding the central bank's credibility could all trigger a 'perfect storm'.Sharmaexpress: Although we do not want to exaggerate the plight of the pound as some kind of 'doomsday' scenario, we are concerned that the increasing politicization of UK policy will weaken the pound in a way similar to emerging market countries. We feel that there are some changes happening in the UK, with the Bank of England becoming increasingly difficult to interpret and transparency decreasing, while also failing to discuss and acknowledge the significant resistance that Brexit poses to the supply side and the Bank of England losing control over its responsibilities

　　今日需要关注的数据有，法国第一季度GDP年率终值、德国5Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment, Eurozone5Monthly harmonyCPIAnnual rate, Canada5monthCFIBBusiness Barometer, USA5Month ChicagoPMIAnd the United States5The Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Chamber of Commerce in June.

Gold trend analysis:

　　周二市场依旧平淡，继续维持震荡区间内做高空低多操作。技术面内，黄金在1864收低后，日线收类十字星小阳线，暂时维持在布林中轨之上，看不出具体的方向，涨跌都有可能，日线下跌可看前低1840，上涨则看前高1870，预计小非农ADP或者非农数据拉开此区间。四小时周期的震荡表现更加明显，布林收口，均线集中在布林中轨附近，是标准的高估底渣行情，暂时可见的区间范围在1845/1860，日内可围绕此区间做高空低多，由于周初整体偏弱，慢跌走势扩大的话，低位1845破位，下方则看1840。对于日内行情而言，小周期不做交易参考，容易被震荡环境影响，做四小时的1845-1860区间交易即可。

　　美联储官员又放鹰，除非通胀“大幅”降温，否则每次会议都应该讨论加息50个基点。这种消息来回被炒作，市场已经免疫。短线走跌，不改整体趋势，按技术来分析就行了。继续看多黄金正当时。黄金1842为关键分水岭，承上启下的作用，在日线中轨之上就是要干多的意思，不破多空分水岭，那么黄金就还是多头。也不要被当前的一根K线下破了胆。黄金现在是震荡行情，没有那么大的行情，直接做多就行。黄金当前属于上涨走势，遇阻1870压力后横盘整理，蓄势，为再次上涨积蓄能量。操作上还是以低多为主，尤其是靠近下方的支撑，更要多，即便是区间内震荡，低多也是合适的。操作上指南金师建议黄金早盘1845直接做多。除非行情破位，否则涨势不变

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