Guide Metallographer:5.30非农万众瞩目，黄金能否闪闪发光？

　　goldFundamentals:
　　
Spot gold is expected to close higher for the second consecutive week as Federal Reserve minutes suggest7After the month, there is an open attitude towards other policy options, and the market is skeptical that the Federal Reserve can successfully suppress inflation without causing an economic recession or significantly pushing up unemployment. The expectation of the Federal Reserve adopting more aggressive monetary tightening policies has decreased, and the US dollar index has fallen for two consecutive times, hitting4month25Recently, it has reached a new low101.429。
　　
　　经济数据方面，美国商务部上周四公布，第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)Decline at an annual rate1.5%, lower than the decline predicted by Dow Jones1.3%Is also lower than the initially announced shrinkage1.4%。5month14The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week is21.810000 people, an increase from the previous season, slightly higher than the estimated21.5Ten thousand people. Although from4Month in the United StatesCPIFrom a data perspective, there is almost no sign that inflation is about to peak, but based on market inflation expectations5There was a significant cooling in the month:5Annual forward inflation expectations4At the time of the month, it reached2.67%Years of new highs, at5The month falls back to2.22%Frontline, creating2011The largest decline since the beginning of the year.
　　
With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by a large margin, the financial environment has been tightening, and the market foam has subsided due to the sharp drop of the U.S. stock market, indicating that Wall Street is listening carefully to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, which will eventually help to cool inflation. At the same time, based on market inflation expectations5The significant monthly decline indicates that the Federal Reserve has made slow but positive progress in curbing inflation. When commenting on the aforementioned inflation expectations data, capital analysts at Bank of Montreal stated that "there is still a lot of work to be done to lower inflation expectations and achieve the Fed's target level, but the current expectations are at least within the Fed's acceptable range. The market has shown some confidence in Powell's fight against inflation." This indicates that there will not be a significant change in the Fed's rate hike pace in the short term, which poses pressure on gold. However, some analysts believe that given the huge inflationary pressure brought about by Russia's war in Ukraine and the rising labor costs in the United States, there is still room for gold prices to further climb.
　　
Analysis predicts that the increase in labor costs in the United States will keep the cost of living in the United States at around the end of the year5%The high order of. When the inflation rate remains at least one quarter5%When mentioned above, precious metals tend to perform strongly. However, from the recent performance of spot gold, even if bullish gold bullies counterattack, they still appear hesitant and insufficient in strength. From this, it can be seen that there is a significant divergence in the current bullish and bearish positions of gold, and both are trying to find a clear direction.
　　
Gold trend analysis:
　　
　　黄金上周四下探回升收平，先行下探1840.60After a long period of horizontal consolidation, the area will be stabilized and organized. The rebound in the late trading session recovered the lost ground during the day's decline. Final closing at1850upper. Daily crossKThe consolidation of the line closed with the weakening of the US dollar, boosting the rebound of gold prices after consolidation. From the perspective of daily structure, it has been sorted out for a long time and the trend may change. Coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, the short-term rebound of gold may still be further boosted. Build momentum in the consolidation process and then push for a rebound. The daily line is currently in a uniform angle range, with30Daily suppression, below10日线的支撑，周五周线收官。开盘的位置依旧在1850Neutral position, lower critical1840.Upper critical1870.4小时图布林道开始收口，上周四触及下轨启稳，二次下探后轻微启稳反弹，收在中轨附近，上周五开盘依旧在中轨附近，目前上轨的压力在1866Nearby. The lower rail is1840的支撑，目前布林道收口当中，结合上周四的走法，今日可能依旧是小区间窄幅整理。区间收缩变小，多空到有顾忌，等待形成有效放量突破。1Hours on1840Organize to form temporary support. But I haven't stood yet1856The previous day's rebound high point resulted in insufficient continuity between long and short positions, which was boosted by the weakening of the US dollar. But the intensity is also difficult to achieve in one step, and repeated twists and turns are the main style. Today we still need to focus on1840防守。此位之上继续看震荡反弹。反之下破则走弱。综合来看，今日黄金操作上指南金师建议短期上方关注1865-1870One line of resistance, pay attention below1840-1835Frontline support.
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