Guide Metallographer:5.28晨间黄金走势分析，下周黄金何去何从

　　goldFundamentals:

Spot gold is expected to close higher for the second consecutive week as Federal Reserve minutes suggest7After the month, there is an open attitude towards other policy options, and the market is skeptical that the Federal Reserve can successfully suppress inflation without causing an economic recession or significantly pushing up unemployment. The expectation of the Federal Reserve adopting more aggressive monetary tightening policies has decreased, and the US dollar index has fallen for two consecutive times, hitting4month25Recently, it has reached a new low101.429。

In terms of economic data, the United States Department of Commerce announced on Thursday that the first quarter GDP(GDP)Decline at an annual rate1.5%, lower than the decline predicted by Dow Jones1.3%Is also lower than the initially announced shrinkage1.4%。5month14The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week is21.810000 people, an increase from the previous season, slightly higher than the estimated21.5Ten thousand people. Although from4Month in the United StatesCPIFrom a data perspective, there is almost no sign that inflation is about to peak, but based on market inflation expectations5There was a significant cooling in the month:5Annual forward inflation expectations4At the time of the month, it reached2.67%Years of new highs, at5The month falls back to2.22%Frontline, creating2011The largest decline since the beginning of the year.

With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by a large margin, the financial environment has been tightening, and the market foam has subsided due to the sharp drop of the U.S. stock market, indicating that Wall Street is listening carefully to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, which will eventually help to cool inflation. At the same time, based on market inflation expectations5The significant monthly decline indicates that the Federal Reserve has made slow but positive progress in curbing inflation. When commenting on the aforementioned inflation expectations data, capital analysts at Bank of Montreal stated that "there is still a lot of work to be done to lower inflation expectations and achieve the Fed's target level, but the current expectations are at least within the Fed's acceptable range. The market has shown some confidence in Powell's fight against inflation." This indicates that there will not be a significant change in the Fed's rate hike pace in the short term, which poses pressure on gold. However, some analysts believe that given the huge inflationary pressure brought about by Russia's war in Ukraine and the rising labor costs in the United States, there is still room for gold prices to further climb.

Analysis predicts that the increase in labor costs in the United States will keep the cost of living in the United States at around the end of the year5%The high order of. When the inflation rate remains at least one quarter5%When mentioned above, precious metals tend to perform strongly. However, from the recent performance of spot gold, even if bullish gold bullies counterattack, they still appear hesitant and insufficient in strength. From this, it can be seen that there is a significant divergence in the current bullish and bearish positions of gold, and both are trying to find a clear direction.

Gold trend analysis:

Gold fell yesterday, rebounded and closed flat, and fell first1840.60After a long period of horizontal consolidation, the area will be stabilized and organized. The rebound in the late trading session recovered the lost ground during the day's decline. Final closing at1850upper. Daily crossKThe consolidation of the line closed with the weakening of the US dollar, boosting the rebound of gold prices after consolidation. From the perspective of daily structure, it has been sorted out for a long time and the trend may change. Coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, the short-term rebound of gold may still be further boosted. Build momentum in the consolidation process and then push for a rebound. The daily line is currently in a uniform angle range, with30Daily suppression, below10With the support of the daily line, the week ended today. The opening position is still in place1850Neutral position, lower critical1840.Upper critical1870.4Houtu Bling Road began to close. Yesterday, it hit the lower track and started to stabilize. After a second dip, it slightly rebounded and closed near the middle track. Today, the opening is still near the middle track, and the pressure on the upper track is currently1866Nearby. The lower rail is1840With the support of the current closure of Bollinger Road, combined with yesterday's approach, it may still be a narrow consolidation between residential areas today. The contraction of the interval becomes smaller, and there are concerns about being bullish, waiting to form an effective volume breakthrough.1Hours on1840Organize to form temporary support. But I haven't stood yet1856The previous day's rebound high point resulted in insufficient continuity between long and short positions, which was boosted by the weakening of the US dollar. But the intensity is also difficult to achieve in one step, and repeated twists and turns are the main style. Today we still need to focus on1840防守。此位之上继续看震荡反弹。反之下破则走弱。综合来看，黄金操作上指南金师建议短期上方关注1865-1870One line of resistance, pay attention below1840-1835Frontline support.

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