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goldFundamentals:
昨日,美元指数继续延续下跌,美企业获利全线下降令经济前景不明朗,获利下降和股价下跌可能会迫使企业暂停招聘或开始裁员,市场考虑美联储是否可能在今年下半年放缓甚至暂停其紧缩周期,美元指数刷新一个月低点。美股周四大幅收高,零售商发布乐观获利预估,且对美联储过度激进加息的担忧缓解,提振了市场的买入情绪。美三大stock market index均收得强劲涨幅,对经济敏感的非必需消费品股和芯片股跑赢大盘。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数涨幅最大,急升近2.7%,苹果、特斯拉和亚马逊均带来提振。
周四发布的经济数据,包括初请失业金人数、成屋待完成销售和国内生产总值,喜忧参半,表明经济表现出的疲软恰好足以促使美联储在秋季之前转向鸽派。对于黄金来说,利率上升正在打压金价,但黄金仍有上涨空间,原因是俄乌战争与美劳动力成本上涨,将造成生活成本居高不下,预估到今年底以前,美通胀率会一直保持在5%about.
Analysis of Gold Market Trend
Friday(5month27日)亚洲时段,现货黄金微涨,目前交投于1855美元附近,一方面,美国企业获利全线下降令经济前景不明朗,市场考虑美联储是否可能在今年下半年放缓甚至暂停其紧缩周期,美元指数刷新一个月低点至101.42,俄乌地缘局势有所恶化,给金价提供支撑;另一方面,美国就业数据强劲,隔夜美国股市大涨,带动全球股市上涨,美元周四下跌0.33%Report collection101.77,周五延续跌势,刷新近一个月带动至101.42,因市场考虑美联储是否可能在今年下半年放缓甚至暂停其紧缩周期,这将削弱美元的避险吸引力。利率上升正在打压金价,但黄金仍有上涨空间,原因是俄乌战争与美国劳动力成本上涨,将造成生活成本居高不下,欧阳平预估到今年底以前,美国通胀率会一直保持在5%左右。若5%以上通胀率维持至少一季,黄金通常会有突出表现。整体来看,尽管美国股市带动全球股市上涨,略微压制金价,但市场对美联储过度激进加息的预期降温,美元持续走弱,给金价提供支撑,此外,地缘局势依旧紧张,仍给金价提供避险支撑,金价守住200日均线关键支撑,短线略微偏向震荡上涨
黄金从技术面来看,黄金昨日下探回升收平,先行下探1840.60After a long period of horizontal consolidation, the area will be stabilized and organized. The rebound in the late trading session recovered the lost ground during the day's decline. Final closing at1850upper. Daily crossK线整理收盘,美元的走弱,提振了金价整理后的再反弹。从日线结构来看,已经整理较长时间,久盘不下跌,趋势可能有所改变,加上美元的走弱,短线可能仍将进一步提振黄金反弹向上。日线目前处于均一夹角区间整理,上有30Daily suppression, below10With the support of the daily line, the week ended today. The opening position is still in place1850Neutral position, lower critical1840.Upper critical1870.4Houtu Bling Road began to close. Yesterday, it hit the lower track and started to stabilize. After a second dip, it slightly rebounded and closed near the middle track. Today, the opening is still near the middle track, and the pressure on the upper track is currently1866附近,下轨则是1840Support.1Hours on1840Organize to form temporary support. But I haven't stood yet1856前一日的反弹高点,使得多空延续性不足,受到美元的走弱,提振反弹。但力度也难一步到位,反复迂回是主格调。综上所述,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主,回调低多为辅,上方重点关注1865-1860Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1840-1835Frontline support.
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