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Message interpretation:
昨日欧洲央行行长拉加德在世界经济论坛发表讲话,拉加德暗示欧洲央行存款利率接下来将至少上调50个基点,引发了人们对今年夏天该央行将进一步加息的臆测。此前欧洲央行表示计划很快结束负利率,欧元区利率可能在第三季末达到正值。加息旨在对抗俄乌事件导致的能源价格上涨以及公共卫生事件后大规模刺激推动的通胀急升。拉加德最新讲话增强了市场关于最早7月加息的预期,这给欧元带来提振,对美元形成压力,随着美元的走低,gold昨日进一步上行,最高涨至1869.5Near.
Early morning2:00To be announcedFOMC 5月货币政策会议纪要,投资者需要关注有关近期政策的讨论——利率路径、预期的经济状况,以及政策制定者在放慢紧缩步伐之前希望从数据中看到什么。FOMC会议纪要、会后声明和美联储主席的新闻发布会可能传递不同的信息。
会议纪要反映了会议上关于一系列问题的热烈讨论,是委员会如何看待新信息、经济前景以及与前景相关风险的简要声明;它列出了政策行动和前瞻性指引。投资者可以通过美联储5月会议纪录,研判美联储主席鲍尔会后记者会“鹰中带鸽”的谈话是决策委员的普遍共识,还是一小批人的看法。整体来看,短线多空博弈可能会加剧,金价可能会出现一些拉锯行情。
Gold trend analysis:
周二录得一根实体中阳线,价格再创新高至1869.5一线,日线级别5连阳,昨日收盘价格站上中轨,且价格已破位反弹382回高线阻力位,今日黄金大概率会延续反弹走势,现在的黄金依然是多头上涨走势,回调做多是最正确的操作思路。而且黄金的走势非常规律,新高后回调横盘震荡,蓄势后再次拉升新高,走势非常健康,黄金走势很规律,均线支撑K线稳步抬升,震荡横盘是为了再次上涨蓄势,而回调就是再次多的机会,突破昨日高点1865后将会继续上涨1880一线。黄金现在一直维持均线支撑上方运行,属于多头上涨趋势,我们现在的思路只有一个,低多看涨。至于黄金是否已经见顶,是否会进行大幅回调,没有跌破关键支撑确认信号前,我们不会轻易的改变看法。
Gold4小时小台阶震荡反弹,目前的反弹还是当作修正对待,空间上并未完全反转趋势,从二浪下跌高点1998的下挫,反抽昨日触及到了0.382的阻力,此位是反弹的首个阻力点,昨日也确实点到即止。日线收低留出上影线,使得短线仍存悬念。从浪形反弹修正的空间来看。0.382的反弹是正常的修正区域。此处若能压制转空,那么后市仍会看向跌势,不过近期美元表现弱势,使得黄金短线还是小有支撑,预计周初在美联储利率决议之前,短线还是震荡拉锯节奏。黄金小时图上,虽然日内黄金居高震荡,整体走势符合预期的以时间来换空间的消化,但是居高横盘状态下,对于操作上会带来一定的不便,尤其是多单的参与上。美盘时段黄金突破前高最高来到1869美元附近,黄金暂时还是关注1870-75一带压力,技术上还是有进一步回修调整需求的,即便行情以时间消耗来换空间的回修,空间上也是要有一定回撤的,后市下方继续关注1860附近争夺,主要支撑也继续看短线上涨通道趋势线支撑1855一带。所以综合分析,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主,回落做多为辅,上方短期关注1870-1875Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1850-1848Frontline support.
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