Guide Metallographer:5.25临近美联储会议纪要，黄金空头欲卷土重来？

　　道明证券经济学家指出：“gold反弹步伐仍然蹒跚，因美联储主席鲍威尔已经表示，愿意承受一定痛苦来平抑通胀，暗示美联储还倾向于承受更多经济代价来收紧政策，这将会最终打压金价。 ”

　　为应对逾40年未见的高通胀，美联储在接下来的两次政策会议上仍将大幅加息，2022年底利率将升至2.75%to3.00%。但美联储决策层似乎低估了缩表和加息带来的负面影响。

　　亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，他支持货币政策迅速回归更“中性”的立场。他在博文中写道，货币政策制定者必须注意新冠大流行、乌克兰战争和供应限制对经济前景的不确定影响，并谨慎实施紧缩政策。

Wednesday(5month25day)，国际金价走低，脱离隔夜创下的5month9New high in recent days1869.59dollar/盎司，有望结束此前五个交易日连涨势头，因美元指数收复部分失地，远离隔夜录得的4month26Daily low point101.643。

　　但美联储激进加息引发市场对经济硬着陆可能的担忧。美联储将在北京时间周四(5month26day)Announced in the early morning5月会议纪要。若会议纪要内容释放更鸽派的信号，将推动金价进一步反弹。

Beijing Time15:17Spot gold fell0.41%to1858.72dollar/Ounces;COMEXThe main contract of futures funds fell0.44%to1857.1dollar/盎司；美元指数上涨0.34%to102.109。

Analysis of the latest gold market:

Analysis of Gold Message Surface:

Wednesday（5month25日）现货黄金小幅下跌，目前交投于1856美元附近，周二现货黄金震荡上行，美盘中走高至逼近1870美元关口，尾盘小幅回落企稳，最终收涨0.7%Report1866.11dollar/盎司；现货白银盘中最高触及22.20dollar/盎司，最终收涨1.56%Report22.11dollar/Ounces. United States5Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Record-9, creating2020year5New low since the beginning of the month. U.S.A4月新屋销售总数跌至疫情初期以来最低水平。周二，美联储掉期下调了9Monthly interest rate hike50个基点的可能性。次日2:00Federal ReserveFOMCpublish5月货币政策会议纪要。如果美联储官员认为这次的紧缩程度要大于之前的周期，那么这可能意味着这次不需要将基金利率提高这么多。

Technical analysis of gold:

Gold4小时小台阶震荡反弹，目前的反弹还是当作修正对待，空间上并未完全反转趋势，从二浪下跌高点1998的下挫，反抽昨日触及到了0.382的阻力，此位是反弹的首个阻力点，昨日也确实点到即止。日线收低留出上影线，使得短线仍存悬念。从浪形反弹修正的空间来看。0.382的反弹是正常的修正区域。此处若能压制转空，那么后市仍会看向跌势，不过近期美元表现弱势，使得黄金短线还是小有支撑，预计周初在美联储利率决议之前，短线还是震荡拉锯节奏。黄金小时图上，虽然日内黄金居高震荡，整体走势符合预期的以时间来换空间的消化，但是居高横盘状态下，对于操作上会带来一定的不便，尤其是多单的参与上。美盘时段黄金突破前高最高来到1869美元附近，黄金暂时还是关注1870-75一带压力，技术上还是有进一步回修调整需求的，即便行情以时间消耗来换空间的回修，空间上也是要有一定回撤的，后市下方继续关注1860附近争夺，主要支撑也继续看短线上涨通道趋势线支撑1855一带。所以综合分析，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主，回落做多为辅，上方短期关注1870-1875Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1853-1848Frontline support.

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