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周二,国际金价小幅走低,但依旧坚强,因美元指数续创4month26Recently, it has reached a new low101.786。鉴于美联储在6Month and7月会议上各加息至少50个基点的预期已经被消化,投资者继续解除对美元进一步上涨的押注,有利于以美元计价的gold。美元指数跌破102.00后应该有可能测试55Daily moving average(今天位于100.84)。不过,从更广泛的角度来看,该指数目前的看涨立场仍然受到3个月线100.30的支撑,而只要位于200Daily moving average96.59上方,美元长期前景仍较为乐观,积极看涨金价的交易商有理由保持谨慎。
利空美元的理由是,人们开始猜测,美联储激进的货币正常化措施将导致美国经济将出现“硬着陆”。美元走软帮助金价突破200日均线,这对黄金多头来说是有建设性的。
Analysis of the trend of gold market;
Tuesday(5month24day),现货黄金持坚,因美元指数续创4month26Recently, it has reached a new low101.735,投资者继续降低对美联储激进加息给经济带来的正面预期,美联储决策层对7月份之后如何调整加息节奏存在分歧。按照市场预计,美联储将在年底前加息至2.75%-3%区间。但有人表示,美联储将在7月之后下调加息幅度。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克来说,一旦美联储按照主席鲍威尔所暗示的那样(6Month and7月各加息50Basis points),“那么9月份暂停加息可能是有意义的。我认为这在很大程度上取决于我们开始看到的基本动态,包括美联储试图控制通胀以及加息对经济的影响。未来几个月物价上行压力如何演变尚且不明朗,而更复杂的是,美联储还将在下个月开始缩减规模近9万亿美元的资产负债表,相比美联储上次缩表,目前的市况更加动荡。利空美元的理由是,人们开始猜测,美联储激进的货币正常化措施将导致美国经济将出现“硬着陆”。美元走软帮助金价突破200日均线,这对黄金多头来说是有建设性的。美联储未来的任务十分棘手,人们越来越担心美国经济如何在全球增长放缓的背景下应对利率上升,在这种情况下,黄金市场抛售压力似乎有所放缓。
从黄金日线图看,近段时间金价一直保持低位震荡反弹走势,价格持稳于MA5均线支撑之上,虽然昨日金价冲高回落录得带长上影线的K线形态,表示上方压力效果比较强劲,不过MACD指标双线仍在金叉过程当中,暗示后市仍有机会进一步延续反弹过程,不过需要重点关注下方MA5The supporting effect of the moving average.
From gold4小时图看,前段时间金价作出小型双底形态并成功回踩颈线位置支撑,不过到目前为止双底形态所带来的理论涨幅基本已经成功兑现,昨天金价出现承压回落,并且MACD指标双线有向下拐头的迹象,暗示现阶段价格有扭转趋势的迹象,综合上述分析,短线操作指南金师建议区间高空低多箱体操作,上方重点关注1870-1865阻力;下方重点关注1848-1843brace
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