Guide Metallographer:5.19今日黄金反弹仍可空，伦敦金走势分析

　　5.19goldAnalysis of the latest market trend

Wednesday（5month18日）亚洲时段，现货黄金徘徊于1815附近；现货黄金周二小幅走低，强劲的美国零售销售数据和对激进加息的预期盖过了美元回落带来的支撑，欧美一股市上涨也对金价有所压制。美元的走弱一度帮助金价反弹至1836附近，该位置接近200日均线阻力，但随后回落，收报1815美元附近。美国黄金futuresrise 0.3%, to1819.70美元。对贵金属市场的情绪开始变得更加看跌，这可能对黄金的未来是个坏消息，未来还会有更多人结清头寸，特别是在美联储继续发出鹰派信号的情况下。美元回落，这限制了金价的跌幅，使黄金对持有其他货币的人来说更便宜。全球最大黄金支持交易所交易基金(ETF)-SPDR Gold Trust GLD 持金量处于3月初以来 的最低水平，这也反映了投资者情绪。因美联储主席鲍威尔等官员继续强化激进加息预期，而且股市上涨也打压黄金的避险需求。而全球股市上涨也消弱了美元的吸引力，使得昨日黄金与美元短线伴随局部的同步回落。强劲的美国零售销售数据和对激进加息的预期盖过了美元回落带来的支撑。

　　黄金从技术面来看，黄金昨日先扬后抑，尾盘收低，开盘横向整理后先延续了前一日的反弹，最高触及1836.0dollar|盎司，美盘时段承压回落失守1830.破位没能站稳关键阻力，随后承压回吐日内反弹空间。且收在低位。日线单阳反弹之后立马转阴。趋势还是处于震荡下跌，伴随单阳反弹修正后再承压下行，反弹不连阳，持续性不强，仍是弱反弹修正。4小时图昨日一浪反弹在1836一线受阻回落，目前还处于4小时下行通道中运行，而离上轨处1850-1853还有一定距离，昨日反弹后仍收在中性位置，使得短线多空延续不定。此位多空互有分化，单从趋势而言，目前的反弹只是修正并非反转，后市修正之后仍看下跌。而从短线结构来看。反弹的力度和空间也可大可小，现阶段是回踩后推动二浪反弹，还是就此在1836形成受阻重新走跌有待确定。形态和结构的多空变化也是瞬息万变。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方重点关注1828-1833Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1805Frontline support.

　　crude oil方面分析：

　　周三原油是再次试探115附近回落，日线收阴，结合前一个交易日的阴十字星收尾，日线周期已经有了反转回落的信号，也就是说，今天原油的思路是以空为主，暂时先关注日线布林带中轨106支撑。今天早间开盘，原油急跌给出107.5的低点后快速回到110上方，短线反弹力度较大，连续性也不错，所以日内短线原油先看顺势看反弹，上方预计看112附近压制，日内能否按照前面分析回落，还是要关注接下来的短线反弹力度。总结：理论上，原油已经进入到了反转回落的走势中，但是短线走势偏强，所以只能先顺势看反弹，确定上方压制后再空，慢慢调整思路。日内关注点位112/110/107/106。

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