Guo Shengshan:5.19Is gold rising or falling in the morning? The latest operational strategy for crude oil and silver

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　　goldLatest Market Analysis:

Yesterday, gold initially hit a high and fluctuated. Although the US dollar index has been falling all the way, gold has not budged and the high point has only been pushed up1836Frontline, i.e200The daily pressure level, on the contrary, the late market continued to fall under pressure and eventually fell back5Daily offline, closing at1815Nearby, there is a small overcast line with an upward shadow in the daily line collection area. In terms of daily structure, the decline and rebound in the previous two days have resulted in a positive and negative closingKUnder the influence of the line pattern and the significant downward adjustment of the US dollar, yesterday's market not only did not have inertia to rise, but instead fell and closed negative, making the trend truly abnormal. Looking back at the reason why the market experienced a brief rebound and then fell back, there may be two main reasons: firstly, the rebound on Monday night to some extent overdrawn the rebound space brought by the decline of the US dollar, but compared to the strength of the US dollar decline, the current rebound strength of gold is still insufficient; Secondly, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other officials continued to strengthen their expectations for aggressive interest rate hikes, suppressing the momentum of gold's recovery. However, the news was released in the late night, and before the announcement, gold had already shown a very weak performance, so the impact was actually limited. So, returning to the technical structure of the market itself, currently there is a gap between two yin and one yangKThe line shape is also difficult to make further direction judgments, and the current gold trend has also deviated from the rhythm of the US dollar trend, which further increases the uncertainty risk of the short-term market. Therefore, we can temporarily wait and see within the day, giving the market the time and process to digest the choices, in order to avoid the current risks that cannot be targeted.

Combining daily and hourly chart structures, focus on the top of the day first5Daily line1817Competition nearby, but the main pressure still depends on10、200Daily line1835/36Nearby, while below, the focus is on1800Nearby integer digit competition, currently affected by the continuation of yesterday's negative line, market sentiment may appear depressed, and low volatility digestion is a high probability event. In terms of operation, given the current trend of long short conversion in the market and the extremely inconsistent performance with the rhythm of the US dollar, we will not make any plans to participate for the time being1820—00Within the range of oscillation digestion, but even in the range of oscillation, it is not suitable for short-term low altitude operations. If the operation is1820、1800Nearby, further strategic adjustments will be made during the session. Based on the above short-term operations, Guo Shengshan suggests a pullback and a long position, with a focus on the following1805-1800Support, attention from above1835-1840Resistance;

Suggestions for short-term operation of gold:

Multiple order strategy: recommendations1808-1803Long in batches, stop loss1798, Objective1823-1830；

Empty Order Strategy: Suggestion1835-1840Short in batches, stop loss1845, Objective1820-1815；

The strategy is for reference only, and specific operations are subject to real-time market conditions;

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Wednesday(5month18day)International oil prices have risen by over1%Due to industry data showing a decline in US crude oil inventories and the easing of epidemic prevention and control measures, demand may be stimulated. However, the oil market also faces two major bearish factors. The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes have boosted the US dollar and suppressed commodity prices. The temporary lifting of negotiations between Chevron and Venezuela by the United States is expected to bring more crude oil into the market. American Petroleum Institute(API)According to data released overnight, as of5month13During the current week, crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased244.5Ten thousand barrels, expected increase153.3Ten thousand barrels; Gasoline inventory has also decreased far beyond expectations510.2Ten thousand barrels, which has sparked supply concerns.

Technical Analysis of Crude Oil: Yesterday's Cross of Crude OilKAfter a long period of high consolidation and flattening, the line fell back and fell to111.78.However, the closing was still at a neutral high position, with a rebound from the high without closing low. The next day, it continued to consolidate at a high level. Following the daily rise of consecutive positive trends, accompanied by a small negative crossKLine organization correction, crossKThe closing of the line is still a strong consolidation correction. However, in the late trading session, some of the lost land was recovered, making the short-term competition still ongoing today,4The hour chart quickly turned positive and recovered after the double negative line withdrew yesterday. The end of the trading session remained at a high level, making it uncertain whether the Asian session will continue to be bullish or bearish today. It is currently difficult to determine whether to further consolidate and break through the high level or to confirm a retracement before recovering. Bollinger Road shows that it is temporarily above the mid track and has more oscillations. It does not lose the mid track when retreating, and the short track long head structure has not been changed.1Houtu Bling Road begins to close. Locally entering a period of volatility, with uncertain trading volume. The Asian session is on the sidelines, shifting the timeline to the European and American session. Overall, in terms of short-term operation strategy for crude oil today, Guo Shengshan suggests that the main focus should be on rebounding from high altitude, supplemented by going long by stepping back, with a focus on short-term operations above111.5-112.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below107.0-106.5Frontline support.

Analysis of silver trend:

Silver's recent highest impact26The checkpoint has significantly declined, and due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the daily line has experienced ten consecutive negative declines, and has successfully opened up the downward trajectory space for Bollinger,MA5—MA10The moving average maintains a dead fork downward suppression,MACDIt is also a continuation of the green column's ability to measure. In terms of the monthly line, it also rose and fell, ending in a big negative trend, laying the foundation for the decline in May; At present, silver has fallen below21.5Front low position, refresh low point to20.5The position and bearish trend are clear at a glance. Today and Friday are expected to see a rebound and recovery for technical repair, after all, from a high double peak to the current20The gate has already fallen completely6It's already in the US dollar, and both the daily and weekly lines are in severe oversold areas. Personally, I think we can20.5Nearby layouts are mostly focused on technical rebound fixes, but the current trend is still bearish, rebound21.5Emptiness is taking advantage of the situation.

Author/Guo Sheng Shirt

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.