Guo Shengshan:5.11黄金多空洗盘是涨是跌？晚间原油独家建议

　变以占先机，动则赢天下，慧眼看市场，聪心思己步，山不转水转，道不通人变，危机不可怕，就怕没变化。任何的改革都是一次自我的革命，任何的转变都是一次痛苦的蜕变，然而，任何的市场变而是永远的不变，低头以为自己看到的就是天，抬头却发现还有不一样的世界，出路只有走出去才有路，今天的定位决定了明天的地位，今天的格局将影响明天的结局。

　　goldAnalysis of the latest market trend

Tuesday(5month10day)，国际金价小幅走高，因美联储官员强力打压未来一次性加息75个基点的预期，并期待供应压力缓解，提振了非孳息资产黄金的价格。分析师在研报中称：“如果CPI数据证实通胀可能已经在3月见顶，那么随着投资者重新评估美联储6月货币政策前景，美元可能面临新的抛售压力。在这种情况下，美国国债收益率可能会下降并推动黄金上涨。另一方面，如果CPI数据意外上行，市场应坚持6Monthly interest rate increase75个基点的观点。”他指出，如果金价开始以1880美元作为支撑，它可能会将其反弹扩大至1900美元，但只有日线收于后者上方，才能为进一步上涨至1920dollar/1930美元区域打开大门。市场分析师说：“从历史上看，强势美元一直与金价保持着负相关性，这意味着该资产未来可能面临逆风。不过，重要的是要考虑到，金价的反应可能受到美元走强背后驱动因素的影响，而不仅仅是美元的走势。如果美元由于强硬的央行和不断上升的收益率而保持强势，黄金可能会受到负面影响，但如果美元的上涨是由于避险情绪和地缘政治紧张局势持续，黄金可能会上涨。”

　　黄金从技术面来看，日线级别震荡下跌；MACDDeadfork signal continuation,KDJ金叉被破坏并初步死叉，短期均线空头排列，短线偏向空头，继续关注1850一线支撑，若失守该位置，则偏向进一步试探200Daily moving average1836.60附近支撑，中线甚至可能会进一步跌向1month28Daily low point1780Nearby. In the short term,2month11Daily low point1821.14and1800关口也还分别存在一定的支撑。上方初步阻力在上周五低点1866附近，顶破该阻力前，后市偏向空头；然后是5Daily moving average1871.12Nearby resistance,10Daily moving average resistance1876.30Nearby,100Daily moving average resistance1884.75附近，若意外收复该位置，则增加短线看涨信号。4小时级别：震荡，布林线轨道水平运行，MACDDead fork,KDJ初步金叉，继续关注布林线轨道的突破情况，目前该区域1847.08-1901.05。短线而言，又要KDJ信号还比较若，顶破1866前，短线偏向空头。布林线中轨阻力在1874.14附近，若能收复该位置，则增加短线看涨信号。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上郭晟衫建议反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方重点关注1865-1860Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1815Frontline support.

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Wednesday(5month11day)Oil prices fell more than on Tuesday2%, falling below100For the second consecutive day of decline, reaching the lowest level in two weeks, the demand outlook is under pressure due to the spread of the epidemic and the growing risk of economic recession. Market concerns about tightening monetary policy have led to an increase in the US dollar, and a strong US dollar has made crude oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies.APIData shows that US crude oil inventories have increased, and concerns about demand due to the spread of the pandemic have increased, dragging down oil prices; The expectation of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has led to concerns in the market about tightening monetary policy, causing the US dollar to rise and bearish oil prices; Follow within the dayEIAData, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, may further stimulate a decline in oil prices. Focus on the United States within the day4monthCPIAnnual rate not seasonally adjustedEIAdata Thursday00:00Federal Reserve Bostic delivered a speech on the US economy and monetary policy.

Technically speaking, crude oil continued to be bearish yesterdayKThe line closed lower and overall met expectations. After falling at a high daily level and closing below the moving average, it is normal for the market to continue to decline in shade the next day. And yesterday, accompanied by a wave of rebound104.10After being under pressure, the trading volume at the end of the day broke through the low point of the Asian market, and continued to decline again when opening today. The main reason for yesterday's rebound was that the daily line closed at a low level again, and yesterday's rebound was mainly to drive the moving average index to turn downward. After yesterday's consolidation, today's direction is relatively clearer, relying on104.10Be bearish at the critical point, and adjust the direction when breaking through.4After a wave of high and consecutive negative declines in the hour, yesterday's single positive rebound correction was combined with a continuous negative break and a downward trend,4The hour formed a second downward trend, driving the moving average index to turn downwards.1Hourly rebound104.10The second highest point of the form step, after breaking through the low point, forms a channel for the step to oscillate and fall, while leading the way4The hourly moving average turns downwards to form a suppression.1The hourly chart has experienced a weak trend and continued to decline, breaking through the low point today100.50附近先行看空。空间结合形态来定，今日再进一步下跌就会靠近区间下轨，未破下轨之前，还是宽幅震荡，破位才能打开空间。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路郭晟衫建议以回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注105.5-106.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below101.4-100.9Frontline support.

　　——本文由郭晟衫gos1678Contribution.

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.