5.6今日黄金反弹不改下跌， follow1865reach1890High throw and low suction

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Message analysis: Friday(5month6day)In the Asian market,goldfutures继续承压，期金现报1875dollar/盎司附近。周四金价冲高回落，因市场认为美联储收紧货币政策的力度超过其他主要央行，美元指数录得近两年最大单日涨幅，再次刷新近二十年新高，抵消了美联储加息立场相对不那么鹰派对金价的支撑。美联储前副主席克拉里达认为，美国利率必须加到至少3.5%，英国央行将基准利率上调至1%，都令多头顾忌持有黄金的机会成本，尽管美国股大跌和地缘局势仍给金价提供支撑，但短线金价仍偏向空头。市场目光开始转向晚间的非农就业报告，从ISM制造业就业指数、ISM非制造业就业指数、ADPAccording to data such as initial claims for unemployment benefits, the growth rate of non farm employment in the evening may be limited, and it may still provide an opportunity for gold prices to bottom out and rebound. But if the non farm performance is stronger than market expectations, it is necessary to be wary of a downward trend in gold prices1850关口的可能性。整体来看，美元的强势和未来加息、缩表预期，令金价承压，短线金价仍有进一步下探风险，但因为美国就业增长放缓、地缘局势依然紧张，这会限制金价的下行空间，短线金价偏向低位震荡筑底，存在探底回升的机会。

　　聚焦非农就业报告！

Friday Beijing Time20：30The United States Department of Labor will announce4月非农就业报告。市场预计，4Non-agricultural employment increased in the month38.510000 people, compared with3月略有下降，但仍然是上一轮经济扩张期间平均增长速度的两倍左右。不过，市场焦点可能将放在失业率上。目前市场预期，美国4月份失业率可能降至3.5%, reaching20century60年代以来的最低水平，甚至有许多经济学家预计失业率将持续下降，这可能会使美联储对抗通胀的努力变得更加复杂。

　　造成这一结果的原因是什么？目前，炽热的劳动力需求似乎不会很快降温，并且，职位空缺和离职率都回到了新高，就业成本也以创纪录的速度增长。而对工人的强烈需求，可能会使美联储努力抑制40年来最高通胀率之际，引发工资更快增长。周五，美国将公布非农就业报告。非农就业数据是一个重大风险，很可能在美联储下一次利率决定前为未来几周定下基调。强劲的就业报告可能会反常地推动市场消化美联储将进一步收紧政策的预期，因为美联储在最近一次会议上降低了选择权。如果就业数据强劲，可能会加剧金价的跌势，尤其是考虑到交易员的空头仓位仍接近历史最低水平。在本周金价反弹期间，空头仓位被挤压在1890USD to1910美元之间。如果有进一步迹象表明美元多头再次进场，空头可能会重新投资。

　　5.6Analysis of gold market trend:

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金周四在凌晨加息靴子落地，兑现预期加息50个基点的计划，这几乎已经是市场之前都已经可以确定的事情，也是本周前段行情做了提前的消化，市场反应平平，但后续鲍威尔明确排除了后续激进的加息预期，加上后续持续的缩表计划预期，引爆了市场情绪，行情上攻突破，白盘延续上攻，高位触及1909.68，压制1910关键位，晚间承压杀多回落，收复市场情绪带来的多头涨幅。凌晨横盘1870-80区间，早盘小幅延续下破1870后反弹，维持区间1870-80内震荡。

　　从行情的具体走势来看，我们预期的二次回踩以及二次回踩位置在利率决议前的起涨位1870目前均已基本兑现，行情凌晨没有延续破低而是震荡横盘，也说明行情在到位预期后出现初步止跌。那么日内行情相对来说也就不能再去盲目追多了，毕竟晚间还有重要的大非农数据。那么对于大非农数据，我们从前期ADP来做一个初步预期，ADP利多黄金，却没有较好的上升，而按照ADP重合非农来说，本周数据，还是利多黄金的概率比较大。但结合行情走势和具体的技术面来看，行情空头依旧是偏强的一方，不说远的，昨日凌晨和白盘的涨势，昨天晚间短线直接收复，所以空头短线依旧是偏强。所以晚间非农的利多，也不能做过多的预期，若预期利多也仅仅只能当做空头修正，而不能作为反转和大幅反攻来应对。

　　具体而言，日内白盘以震荡偏多思路对待，下方依托1865-60防守，于1870附近做低多介入，关注日内反弹及晚间非农数据助力，目标不必太多预期，1890附近就可以做预期出局减持。行情整体空头依旧是偏强一方，反抽到位即可着手铺空，具体晚间再做临盘应对，白盘先以低多应对！行情风险大，请合理控制仓位！今日黄金短线操作上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方关注1888-1890Frontline resistance in the US dollar, following below1866-1862美元支撑，具体操作策略我会在盘中提示，及时关注。近期市场动荡幅度较大，机会与风险并存。控制风险再博收益。

　　5.6黄金后日内操作策略参考：

Empty order strategy:

Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1888-1890Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss5Points, target1875-1865Nearby, break down and take a look1860frontline;

Multiple order strategy:

Strategy 2: Gold Callback1863-1866Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1880-1885Nearby, break down and take a look1890frontline;

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