鼎盛金师：加息行情如何提前布局？黄金走势分析附操作...

良药苦口，入嘴却难入喉；忠言逆耳，入耳却难入心；事情有难易，人言有好坏；我们或许是一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳，对于交易市场，资深分析师最不缺的就是技术，而投资人最不缺的就是选择。伯乐遇知音，千里马觅伯乐，不是所有的都适合，合适的只有一个。你不将就，我不敷衍，虽然你我只是偶然相遇，一篇文章的牵引，或许就是你投资路上越走越顺的基础！

　　goldLatest Market Analysis

Wednesday(5month4day)In the early morning trading of the Asian market, spot gold slightly declined, with current reports1863dollar/Around ounces. The gold price strengthened on Tuesday, because the yield of US treasury bond bonds and the US dollar fell slightly, and the market expected that the Federal Reserve would significantly raise interest rates after the two-day policy meeting10The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds rose from3%The level of decline. Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell0.2%, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday50One basis point to curb soaring inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech will be carefully scrutinized to seek further signals of interest rate hikes.

　　鼎盛金师个人观点：眼下市场预计其将在接下来的3Radical interest rate hikes are expected at this meeting, with Federal Reserve officials expected to raise rates at that time0.5个百分点。另外，美联储主席鲍威尔在IMFAt the group discussion, it was stated that given that the current inflation rate in the United States is approximately the same as that of the Federal Reserve2%Triple the target and taking action faster is appropriate. They hope to control inflation as soon as possible, indicating to the market that they will take radical action. Affected by the surge in trade deficit and slowing inventory growth, the United States announced its first quarterGDPUnexpected shrinkage, equivalent to an annual decrease1.4%，由于供应中断、劳动力短缺和高通胀减缓了经济复苏步伐。美联储大幅加息与缩表的预期，支撑美债收益率与美元走强，在美联储会议前夕，仍有可能继续打压金价，而一旦加息靴子落地，投资者需要警惕市场买预期卖事实，金价在加息之后出现止跌反弹的行情，此外还需要继续关注地缘局势与逢低买盘对金价的支撑情况。

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金昨日低位中阴线收低，日线经过小阳星KAfter the correction of the line rebound, the next day we completed the momentum breaking and closed at a low level, falling below the limit1890The key support competition point, with the daily line closing below the support point, opens up space for relay adjustment of the daily line. It is also a continuation of wave shape adjustment and breaking through the low, unfoldingCThe waves descended. Yesterday's session was accompanied by repeated tugs of war, followed by a rebound after a dive1906二次承压，再尾盘破低收低，隔日看延续下行，弱势行情亚盘就会有所表现。消息方面：美元指数强势上涨连创新高，市场预期美联储将比其它央行更更鹰派，且对欧洲经济增长放缓的担忧加剧了避险资金流入。预计美联储将在5month3-4日的会议上加息50Basis points.

Gold4After a week of consolidation, the moving average index has been pulled to form bearish divergence. From a structural perspective alone, it may experience a very weak unilateral decline. Previously, it had been accompanied by repeated construction, and the moving average index did not turn around. However, currently, there is a potential for rising and falling, driving the index to turn around.4hourKThe line structure is also running in the downstream channel, and at the beginning of the week1911Form a platform secondary high point. Step down channel, the second highest point does not recover, and the bearish trend does not change. Although there has been a pause at present, after consolidation, the closing price is1890下方，形成有效破位，今日看进一步下行，综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上鼎盛金师建议反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方重点关注1880-1885Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1855-1850Frontline support.

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis:

　　原油周二走势再次陷入了无序震荡之中，并未承接前日的多头走势继续向区间上沿挺进，说明当下多空对于后市的判断都非常谨慎，谁都不愿因轻易打响第一枪，再因为临近美联储利率决议公布，市场都在等待尘埃落定。今天来看原油已经缩小了短期的波动区间，下方支撑上移到100.70The upper pressure is107.1。油价大概率会以震荡下行的节奏向100.60一线靠近，至于后期能否在此企稳回升需等待消息面的落定。今日油价反弹至107附近一线卖出，风控107.5Above, target102.50-102.00-100.70。

　　鼎盛金师为每一位看到这篇文章的朋友们分享关于非农个人经验心得：

　　大非农小非农是什么意思？

　　大非农，是指美国非农业就业人口数据，在每月的第一个星期五公布，它是官方数据。

　　和小非农的区别，小非农指的是ADP就业数据，每个月的NO.1个星期三公布，ADP就业人数是非官方调查的数据，但是ADP也是一个庞大的机构，全球每个城市都有调查人员。

　　是指非农业就业人数、就业率与失业率这三个数值。顾名思义，就是反映美国非农业人口的就业状况的数据指标。

　　这三个数据每个月NO.1个周五北京时间(冬令时：11month3month)21:30，(夏令时：4month10month)20:30发布，数据来源于美国劳工部劳动统计局，反应美国经济的趋势，数据好说明经济好转，数据差说明经济转坏。

　　因为非农数据是跟其失业率数据一起发布的，与该国消费市场以及经济发展程度关系密切。

　　因此非农数据的数值增大，则表明美国经济走好，利好美元，而利空金银；

　　反之若其数值减小，则表明美国经济陷入低迷，自然是利空美元，利多金银。

　　小非农(yesAutomaticDataProcessingabbreviationADP)

　　是美国自动数据处理公司定期发布的就业人数数据，在美国属于比较权威的数据。ADPThe US Employment Report is published byADPsponsor,

In the2008In the first six months of the year, samples were taken from approximately the private sector in the United States50Thousands of enterprises, covering nearly3500万美国员工。ADP调查仅包括私营部门的就业数据，不包括政府部门就业人数也同样重要。该报告不是按测算的劳动力总量计算正在工作(或没有工作)的人的百分比的总数，它是统计现在正在排队等候领取失业保险金的人数。

　　申请失业金人数变化是市场上最瞩目的经济指标之一。

　　影响：

　　美国是个完全消费型的社会，消费意欲是经济的最大动力所在，

　　如果每周因失业而申请失业救济金人数增加，会严重抑制消费信心，相对美元是利空，利多黄金。

　　该项数据越低，说明劳动力市场改善，对经济增长的前景乐观，利多美元，利空黄金

　　【新手如何把握超级非农周数据利润】

　　行情正常情况下，非农行情分为三波!第一波叫非农前行情：就是预期行情!fromADP数据公布开始到目前均是;第二波叫做非农行情：也就是大家所深知的那几分钟的涨跌!一般代表着8:30-9:00这一段!波动最大的一段!而这段行情较难把握。第三波叫非农后行情：这就是大概非农数据出来一个小时以后!方向得到了确认了!之后的一直到凌晨三点的一波行情!此外也有延续到次周的趋势性行情。

　　1)首先第一波行情，即非农预期行情，根据非农数据先行指标，ADP数据和就请失业金人数，以及美国经济状况对非农行情进行预期。如ADP数据和失业金人数利好美元，市场普遍预期非农数据将表现出色，打压金银。投资者可在ADP数据公布后建立金银持仓，一直持有至周五晚间6About point.

　　2)其次第二波行情，即非农行情。由于数据就在转瞬间反映在市场上，这段行情快速而剧烈，也是最大获利最快的行情，一般投资者较难把握。

　　对于此时间段行情，第一个方法建议投资者采取双向挂单策略，在非农数据出来前3Hang one minute30Multiple orders and one high order hanging around the dot30Set the low hanging empty order around o'clock before hanging it50点的获利。有一单成交之后就删除另外一个没有成交的单。如果数据没那么大的影响力到不了30点的获利怎么办?那就在你感觉到上攻乏力的时候手动平仓。及时做到止损止盈，务必不要贪心或者长期持单。此类交易手法要求动手迅速，而且坚决果断不可恋战，防止非农行情来回宽幅震荡。一般一年之内，非农数据出炉后行情来回震荡的次数要大于单边走势。(双挂策略，要求执行力强，能承担风险，不贪婪，心态要好!)

　　此外第二种方法就是非农数据出炉后，迅速分析后市行情，顺势而为操作，但此类操作同样要注意及时止损止盈，同样由于行情宽幅震荡，进场点位防止追涨杀跌，且对交易平台的敏感度要求较高，对投资者研判能力也较高。谨慎操作!

　　鼎盛金师个人建议，这波行情中可以先做两个方向单，一个空单一个多单形成互锁，然后出来方向后，平掉相反方向的那一个即可。因为大家做单都知道，平仓只要1秒钟，下单速度比平仓速度慢。但是，行情如果出现来回波动容易出现双向扫损，所以尽量谨慎操作!

　　3)第三波行情：根据非农数据的结果顺势做单。非农数据公布后30After minutes, the market will stabilize. At this point, based on the actual situation of the news, whether it is positive or negative, we are making a correction or taking advantage of the rebound to take advantage of the situation, combined withK线形态和均线系统操作，务必严格设置止损止盈。若行情给力，有望出现单边行情。在这样的行情中，需要及时止盈。但切忌一点，万万不可盲目反向操作，需谨慎对待。对于非农后行情，一般会延续到周一周二，在周一周二的日内行情，会对行情有所修正，但不会改变大的趋势，所以稳健操作在周一周二的整理行情中。

　　补充和强调：

　　⑴非农要控制好仓位，第一波第二波行情建议轻仓操作，6%-10%仓位比较合理。

　　⑵第三波行情可以酌情看5MK线图。重点考虑RSI。稳健者不要做非农。

　　⑶非农结束之后，单纯来说，23点到凌晨三点统计有65%左右的概率会出现单边小幅行情，这样的单边出现200个点以上的行情都是正常的。为了规避风险，切记尽量不要做震荡模式，宁可观望!

　　⑷可以考虑前面提到的双向做单，然后平逆势单方法。

　　⑸强调，对于数据主导行情的时候，所有指标在短时间内都是失效的，不要依赖指标!如果数据出现严重的抗跌性或者抗涨性，那么马上考虑会有强势反弹。这一句话可以简单理解为：利空不跌必有大涨，利多不涨必有深跌。

——This article is contributed by Ding Sheng Jin Shi.

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Technical Director Dingsheng Jinshi Online Solution Set,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.!