Guo Shengshan:5.3晚间黄金原油精准分析操作策略

Those with aspirations have their own thousands, while those without aspirations only feel countless difficulties. If you want to lose, you lose to your pursuers, and if you want to win, you win to your followers. No one will make you lose unless you don't want to win, don't try to be all encompassing, just have everything you need. The ups and downs of the market create waves. In the gold market, you need to learn to steer, and a sense of direction is important. Persisting in the right direction will lead to success, while persisting in the wrong direction can only lead to deeper and deeper traps. Therefore, when your thinking is wrong, timely transformation is the hard truth.

　　goldMarket trend analysis;

Tuesday(5month3day)进入欧市盘中，欧股走高，全球债市遭抛售，收益率进一步攀升。在即将到来的美联储决议前，黄金维持跌势，日内一度触及1850美元，投资者已准备好迎接美国2000年以来最大的加息，以及其他央行纷纷收紧政策。金价周二跌至2月中旬以来最低，因美元走强以及美联储即将升息，削弱了黄金作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力。现货金最多跌近20美元，稍早下跌0.5%Once touched1850.10USD, for2month16日以来最低。美元汇率维持在近20年高位，令以美元计价的黄金对海外买家的吸引力下降，而基准的10年期美国国债收益率周一自2018year12Touched for the first time since the beginning of the month3%，这是一个关键的心理里程碑。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将于今天晚些时候开始利率会议，预计在周三宣布决定时将加息0.5个百分点。货币市场已经消化了今年年底前约250个基点的升息，一些分析师称，这降低了本周出现意外的鹰派立场的空间。尽管可能性被认为很低，但一些投资者正在关注加息75个基点或资产负债表缩减速度比当前预期更快的可能性。尽管黄金被视为对冲通胀的工具，但美国短期利率和公债收益率(Yield rate)走高往往会增加持有零收益黄金的机会成本。综合来看，黄金市场的长期基本面仍然良好，全球的金矿产量在减少，只要人口以及经济增长，金价就会受到支撑。当前，金价只是来到一个短期的转捩点，似乎好消息也未能够提振金价。

Gold fell at the beginning of yesterday's trading session, with an extremely weak bearish downward trend and no rebound correction. The weak consolidation continued straight down until reaching a point in the US market1854.4There was a slight pause at the low point. As for the daily structure, it has fallen below1890Formed after low pointCThe wave continued to decline, followed by a rebound correction last Friday. This week, it opened low and closed low, while the correction after rising and falling again accumulated momentum and accelerated the volume increase in the technical structure. After yesterday's volume increase, it still closed at a low level, and the next day's short-term outlook will continue appropriately. 4Hour after hour, a series of negative drops broke through the low, breaking a new low in recent times, starting from last Friday1920Nearby pressure forms a step sub high point, forming a new wave of step down channels, but the fluctuation base is relatively large1920The decline is also a straight line break through the low and downward trend.KThe line is extremely weak, with consecutive negative declines and a large fluctuation base. The rebound space is slightly smaller. The method of weak correction mainly focuses on horizontal consolidation, while the previous rebound happened to be to accumulate momentum to break through the low.4Maintaining a downward trend during the hour is usually bearish. Yesterday DayKLine Dayin Lowers, Relying on1900Make a critical point, and1890It is the watershed of strength and weakness that breaks the low mouth. Below this level, the rebound remains bearish. Today's first resistance is1872破低口附近，留意能否延续昨日的极弱下行。极弱下行，白盘就是高点直接阴跌放量节奏。把握小周期找切入口进场，以免踏空点位。空间也是边走边看，综合来看，今日黄金短线操作上郭晟衫建议短期上方重点关注1883-1888Frontline resistance in the US dollar, following below1850-1845Frontline support.

　　crude oilRelated information:

　　周一国际油价承压，因中国制造业PMI连续两个月收缩。不过欧盟即将对俄罗斯原油实施禁运，由此引发的潜在供应担忧限制了油价下行空间。油价后市仍看涨，NYMEX原油上看108.07美元。两名欧盟外交官在周末欧盟委员会与欧盟成员国的会谈后表示，欧盟倾向于在年底前禁止进口俄罗斯石油。俄罗斯每天470万桶的原油出口中约有一半销往欧盟，2020年欧盟石油进口的约四分之一来自俄罗斯。限制供应可能会阻止油价下跌。

　　原油昨日先跌后涨，在触及100.1水平出现走高，最高触及106水平，进一步反转前期空头回吐，日线收录一根阳线锤头线，留有较长下影线，油价处于一个三角整理形态中，进一步突破后有望出现趋势延续。四小时级别上看，油价昨日在100.1一线企稳上涨，刚好对称95.2rise107.49美元这波上涨浪的延续，如果上破108.0水平有望形成ABC向上延续，反之如果多头无力向上突破，那么油价将回归107.49遇阻下跌100.259这波下跌行情延续，进一步出现下跌格局，综上所述郭晟衫总结：原油震荡上涨，出现了V型反转，更趋向于向上突破，关注104.1美元支撑，今日操作上考虑回撤布局多单为主，上方关注106-108美元阻力，然后是113.0USD, below support attention104.1-100.0，破位将空头延续。

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