5.2本周重磅数据集中来袭，黄金原油多空“阻击”

　　goldLatest Market Analysis

Monday(5month2day)亚市盘中，金融市场出现波动。美元指数短线出现一波急涨，美元指数亚市早盘一度跌破103.10，但随后短线快速上涨，目前交投在103.35附近。现货黄金加速下滑，金价刚刚一度跌破1890dollar/盎司关口。金价在美元走强的背景下难以找到持续的看涨势头。一些分析师称，美元存在强劲动能。美联储定于当地时间周三宣布利率决定，眼下市场预计其将在接下来的3次会议上激进加息。本周投资者将迎来美联储利率决议和美国非农就业报告，预计将引发市场重大行情。

Thursday Hong Kong Time02:00Federal Open Market Commission(FOMC)The interest rate resolution will be announced; Thursday, Hong Kong time02:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会。根据CME美联储观察最新数据显示，5Monthly interest rate hike50个基点的可能性高达为99.6%，一个月之前仅为43.9%。香港时间周五20:30The United States will announce4月非农就业报告，这是本周最重磅的经济指标。经济学家预计，美国4月非农就业人口料增加39Wan, previously3Monthly increase43.1Ten thousand; United States4月失业率料持平，维持在3.6%的低位。近期俄乌战争带来了市场避险的高涨，而美元是投资者广被看好的避险资产。在美联储几乎肯定5Month and6月加息，且7月很有可能加息的情况下，非生息资产黄金已失去投资者的青睐。在本周的货币政策决定公布之前，美元走势有点超前。美联储任何中性或鸽派论调都可能压低美元，推高金价。

　　黄金技术面分析：本周行情重要的不是技术面，而是市场消息面，本周重点数据在美联储利率决议，ADP，失业金，非农数据上，其中，5月市场加息环境较大，4月底的这轮下跌可能也是受加息影响，美制大涨，对应黄金走弱下跌，周四确定加息黄金还有一波下跌空间，再看周五非农数据的实际影响来决定5月的大方向。

　　那么，周内的行情分阶段看，周一，周二不看数据，周三开始做数据行情，周一，周二偏弱走势，交易以做空为主，周内支撑或到1885、1870，先关注1870的得失，如果破位，趋势走出来，本周会迎来大跌空间，或看1780，周初不破1870，周三周四周五再看数据表现，如果周五非农数据出现反转，大涨在本周上方可见1960。周初技术面交易以短线为主，日内关注1890and1880的得失，早盘弱势不追空，1890有强支撑，不破有快速反弹，破位还有下跌空间，下跌至1880可做多，综合来看，今日黄金短线操作上指南老师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方关注1898-1900Frontline resistance in the US dollar, following below1872-1880USD support

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis:

　　日线布林道开始收口，本周暂时仍看在日布林道的上下轨区间内震荡，上周五的高点即是上轨的阻力，目前轻微受阻，看向下轨回落。原油上周五探高回落收低，日线小阴K线，最高触及107.90一带，尾盘承压回落至103.70.日内高低点都在尾盘时段形成。同时收在低位。4小时短线多头放量之后形成冲高回落，十字K线配合大阴K线收低，单从上周五的形态收盘来看，短线承压，但节奏上还是震荡，本周周初先看承压回落。4小时形态上受阻，短线会有延续，加上日线布林道收口，上轨压制向下轨回落，所以综合分析操作上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，上方关注105.5-106Resistance, pay attention below103-102.5Support.

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