Dingsheng Jinshi: "Wait for the spring breeze to be proud, wait for time to praise" Is gold rising? Still falling?

The game in investment is like a circle. Some people have been walking for several years but have not yet walked out of the circle drawn by the market. Faced with any wave of market trends, they can still be impulsive, indicating that they still have passion for investment and are always impulsive, indicating that they still do not understand investment. The fox that eats is as happy as a tiger, and the phoenix that is in dire straits is not as good as the chicken. This is a plot that often unfolds in both investors and the market. Lowering one's desires to the lowest point and elevating one's rationality to the highest point, the investment path is uneven, and the market will have corners. There are no points that cannot be turned, only people with thoughts that cannot be turned!

　　goldLatest Market Analysis

Tuesday(4month26day)Gold closed slightly higher. The previous day, gold closed at2The lowest level since the end of the month was due to investors turning to other high-quality products for safety and leaving gold behind. At the end of the US market, spot gold closed1905.04element/Ounces, up7.16USD or0.38%The highest daily hit1911.08dollar/Ounces, lowest touch1895.55dollar/Ounces. In the past few days, due to factors such as the sharp rise of the US dollar, the price of gold has weakened significantly and has fallen to1890Near the important support level, there is a certain demand for adjustment in gold prices, and after the sustained sharp rise of the US dollar index, there has also been some pullback. Geopolitical concerns remain, attracting some bargain hunters to enter. However, currently it appears that the short-term strength of the US dollar is difficult to improve, and the rebound space of gold prices may be limited, so further downward exploration risks cannot be ruled out. On this trading day, investors need to continue to pay attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the news about the COVID-19. In terms of economic data, attention needs to be paid to the United States3The performance of monthly durable goods orders is currently expected to be optimistic in the market, with a bias towards bearish gold prices before the data is released.

On the news front, the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates separately in the next two meetings0.5One percentage point. At the same time, this also raises concerns in the market that aggressive tightening policies may damage the global economy. Given the particularity of this interest rate hike cycle, the Federal Reserve faces more uncertainty on how to ensure that economic growth does not derail while suppressing inflation. However, globally, the US dollar remains a relatively high-quality asset. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve may raise overnight loan rates to2.5%, to2023The last quarter of the year will be raised to3.25%. We believe that it is too early to conclude that solving the inflation problem will inevitably lead to an economic recession in the coming years. Despite the significant strengthening of the US dollar suppressing gold prices, the uncertainty surrounding the negative impact of the conflict in Ukraine continues to increase, making gold a safe haven asset that remains attractive to investors.

Technical analysis of gold: Looking at the daily chart of gold, yesterday's significant decline in gold prices recorded a large physical negative lineKThe line pattern directly tests the support of the two low points in March, although there are temporary signs of a stop in the decline in gold pricesMACDThe dual line indicators are still in a dead cross process, indicating that there is still an opportunity for further continuation of the downward trend in the future. However, at this stageKDJThe third line of indicators is operating at a low level, and today's prices opened lower and further awayMA5Under the pressure of moving averages, one should be cautious of any rebound in gold prices during the dayMA5Confirming the effect of pressure on the moving average and short-term retracement of high points1915It is a crucial position. Today, the price has rebounded to over 99%. If we want to continue the rebound, then the low price also needs to extend1890So it won't be worn down. In this case, the first target of the top bulls is1950The checkpoint also means that there is no room for a decline. Because today we will be1900Going long below, we don't have any plans for the middle or long term, but we have a clear goal of price increase1950-53After positioning, we will treat this round of multiple orders as a short-term one!

Small cycle4In the hourly chart, it can be seen that gold has rebounded slightly and consolidated, forming a cross star and a continuous bullish line at a low level. It can be certain that gold will not hit a new low again today,1891Or the lowest point of this week, with continuous small rebounds,4Performance of small fragmented yang during childhoodkThe upward trend is based on a stable foundation, and then we will look at a significant increase. CurrentlykThe line hovers around5Near the daily moving average, the upper resistance is110Daily moving average1915Just look at the strong rebound within the day1915Look at the high point, look at the low point1890From a low level oscillation perspective. For intraday trading, it is best to trade on a large scale within the day1915Short selling,1890Go long, but slowly rise before reaching1890Difficult, therefore, it is recommended to decline in the Asia Europe region1896More support. Breakthrough in the US market1915Then the trend will turn bullish. Overall, in today's gold trading, Dingsheng Jinshi suggests that short-term pullbacks should be the main focus, while rebounds should be supplemented by short selling. Attention should be paid from above1910-1916Frontline resistance in the US dollar, following below1890-1885USD support

——This article is contributed by Ding Sheng Jin Shi.

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