黄金反弹有限，美指创逾两年新高，FED鹰派无...

　　投资犹如下棋，棋艺高者能看出五步，七步甚至十几步，而棋艺低者只能看出两三步，高者顾大局，谋大势，不以一子一地为重，以最终赢棋为目标，低者则寸土必争，只为争一时之需，结果频频受困。趋势，一定要有长远眼光，投资，一定要有长远规划，而交易技巧是成功的关键。

　　【gold走势分析】：

Tuesday(4month26day)，现货黄金反弹，乌克兰冲突所产生的负面影响的不确定性持续增加，使黄金作为避险资产仍保持对投资者的吸引力。但美元指数连续第四个交易日走高，创2020year3月下旬以来新高至101.976，从美联储官员频频发出的鹰派表态中获益，也限制了金价升幅。现在断定解决通胀问题必然导致未来几年经济不可避免地衰退还为时过早。

　　黄金日内先震荡回弹，测压至1907The first line is back under pressure and retreats to1895Nearby, there was another wave of upward trend in the European market during the trading period, and the pressure was measured to1910Not broken, the current market has retreated to1905-00区域。从日内黄金的走势节奏来看，短线回弹仅仅属于技术性的回弹，并不能带来太多的回升空间，且日内两次回弹均被打压，所以日内走势更多的是对昨日下跌的消化过程，尚不具备反转的条件。

　　根据日线以及小时图结构，晚间黄金上方还是着重关注60Daily and early trading intensive points1915In the vicinity of stress testing, as long as the market does not return above this level, there are still conditions for further decline overall. Above Period1910-12也有可能成为短线压力，至于回弹至哪一个压力位出现回撤，也会影响到后期再调整回落的级别。晚间下方还是先关注1895-90Belt support testing, as time goes by, once the shock digestion is completed, it is highly likely to break through1890From the perspective of daily structure, it broke once today1890, retreat1880-75It is also impossible to maintain, but it is also necessary to note that the dollar remains high, and there may be technical recovery at any time, thus bringing the risk of recovery momentum to gold.

【 Golden Operation Concept 】:

Suggestions1913-1911Near empty, stop loss1916, look at the goal1900-1893

Suggestions1896Nearby, stop loss1889, look at the goal1908-1915，如果突破1916Target View1920

　　【crude oil日内行情走势分析】

　　4month26During the Japanese Asian period, the US oil company is currently reporting98.60dollar/桶；油价周一下跌超3%，触及两周最低，因疫情担忧，人们对全球能源需求前景的担忧日益加剧；以及美元兑一篮子货币升至两年高位，美国可能加息，令油价承压。美国能源部长周一表示，美国的石油和天然气产量正在上升，并将继续上升，以弥补俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后市场上减少的100-150万桶石油/日供应。美国能源部长格兰霍姆对CNBC表示，美国石油供应将增加约10010000 barrels/日，这首先来自于美国总统拜登从5月开始、持续六个月创纪录释放战略石油储备。拜登政府预计，未来几个月国内石油产量也将增加，这有助于稳定原油和汽油价格。格兰霍姆在谈到供应释放对油价的影响时表示:“这可能是价格趋于平稳的原因之一。格兰霍姆说，如果欧洲禁止进口俄罗斯原油，全球和美国国内石油市场可能会做出反应。她说，“如果他们真的决定实施某种形式的禁令或类似的中等程度的禁令，那么毫无疑问将对油价产生影响，因为这将使市场供应进一步减少。总体来看，疫情蔓延，需求担忧加剧，主导油价下跌；伊核谈判有望恢复，以及部分国家依旧购买俄石油，为空头助力，诸多利空影响，短线油价或存进一步下跌风险。

　　原油技术面分析；原油昨日跳空低开低走，开盘即是日内高点，弱势一路阴跌，欧美盘时段最低触及95.30附近后轻微启稳，尾盘进行修正，最高至99.50.最终收盘在中性位置98.50.日线收盘小阴K线带有一定长度的下影线。下探后收在中性位置，日线轻微收平，使得今日短线依旧要重新选择强弱延续。弱势行情，则在低位隔日才能延续，而昨日反弹收中性后，今日要重新选择强弱。一是针对下跌空间的回补修正拉锯，而是蓄势选择突破区间。4小时连阴下挫后单阳拉起，一阳吞三阴，慢下跌局快反弹的拉锯震荡，逼近了此前的颈线低点，短线依旧处于争夺当中。决定浪形延续的关键支撑点，破位才能进一步向下，而4HourlyK线收盘，并不算弱，需要结合今天的强弱延续来决定多空转换。1小时图下探回升收高，局部有先行反弹之迹象，但收盘的位置决定后市强弱，今日若反弹之后能重新回落收低，则周中有望蓄势破低，反之进一步收高的话，短线则进入局部震荡拉锯，小时图下行趋势线的阻力点在101.50.此位之下短线相对还是偏空一些，突破则要调整思路。综合来看，原油今日短线操作上指南老师建议逢高做空为主，回踩低多为辅，上方短期关注101.5-102.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below96.0-95.5Frontline support.

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