Guide Metallographer:4.26黄金迎来1800时代，空头盛宴已经开始

In this market, the most fair one is the market situation. All investors are facing the same market situation. However, facing the same market situation, investors will inevitably make different choices. When the market hits wave after wave like waves, some people face opportunities, prepare well, face them head-on, and stop making profits; Some people are afraid and unprepared, and are caught off guard by the market. The market is fair to everyone, it depends on how you face it. If you are the former, I can add icing on the cake for you; If you are the latter, I can lend you a helping hand.

Message interpretation:

　　上周，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，在美联储5month3Solstice5month4日的会议上，加息50个基点将是选项之一。根据CME美联储观察显示，美联储到5Monthly interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is0%Interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is99.6%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is0.4%。基于此种鹰派基调下，近期美债收益率迎来上涨，美债10年期收益率更是直逼3%Da Guan, highest rise to2.975%附近。受这一影响，美元指数亦于近期站上101。这也使得gold、白银等对冲品种近期持续承压回落。

　　此外，据报导，联合国秘书长古特雷斯将于本周访问莫斯科，会见俄罗斯总统普京，然后前往乌克兰，与乌克兰总统泽连斯基进行会谈。据古特雷斯的助理发言人金子绘里表示，古特雷斯此行主要是讨论如何尽快为乌克兰带来和平。这是自俄乌冲突爆发以来，联合国秘书长首次与交战双方进行洽谈，若本次洽谈联合国能够有效缓解双方矛盾，或将使得近期战争所带来的的避险情绪得以消退，这也将成为接下来黄金多头面临的巨大挑战。

Gold Technology Analysis:

　　受市场对美联储加息预期影响，周一黄金自开盘起便一路震荡下跌，跌破短线多个支撑，目前行情最低跌至1890附近支撑后整理，结合日线以及小时图结构，在上周五出现阴线贯穿跌破的情况下，日内行情直接下跌，并未有出现一定的反弹，这说明市场情绪已经一边倒的看空，且下方跌破1900关口，目前最低跌至1890附近支撑，可见下跌空头力度和决心也是很大的。按照目前状态，此位很有可能成为短线的争夺位而已，不排除行情继续向下释放的可能，届时下方先看前期低点1890附近支撑，而如果近期市场炒作加息预期强烈，那么后期回撤1880-70一带也是可能的，甚至回撤1850、1830都不能排除。

　　鉴于当前行情极端偏激状态，无论是美指，还是黄金，都是异常的不合乎常规技术走势需要的，情绪化风险极大，故短线点位关注1900争夺，下方关注1890附近支撑，按照日内下跌情绪，暂时无从判断行情何时能够止跌。

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

Monday（4month25日）亚洲时段，油价延续跌势，现报98.0dollar/桶；在欧盟计划进一步加强对俄能源禁令之际，俄罗斯向欧盟国家的石油出口却持续反弹。美国《华尔街日报》22日报道称，最近几周俄罗斯加大向主要客户——欧盟的石油运输量，4月至今，荷兰、希腊等国的俄石油进口量大幅飙升。《华尔街日报》称，一个“不透明的市场”正在形成。来自俄罗斯港口的石油越来越多地被运送到“不明目的地”，截至4月已经有超过1110万桶石油被装载到没有预定路线的油轮上。德媒认为，欧洲对能源的现实需求迫使其继续大量买入俄石油，贸易交易商正在使用一种古老的方法将俄罗斯石油“瞒天过海”运往欧洲港口。国际货币基金组织(IMF)第一副总裁戈皮纳特表示，如果西方国家因俄对的战-争而扩大对俄制裁，且能源价格继续上涨，该组织可能进一步下调全球经济增长预期。乌俄冲突“绝对有可能”成为一场“长期僵持的冲突。总体来看，全球经济担忧、疫情影响需求，以及欧洲交易商或购买俄石油，为油价空头助力，关注美国国务卿和防长对基辅的访问相关消息，是否使得地缘局势存更多不确定性风险。

　　原油技术面分析；原油上周探高回落收低，周阳单阳摸高后快速转阴，摸高没有持续性，且隔周不延续。短线收低之后，本周倾向于走回落，周线回吐，日线稍显钝化。K线实体略小，在整理中酝酿单边。4The hour chart was lowered in the sawing process,109.90The high point forms a downward wave shape and rebounded last week105.40Secondary pressure, which can be considered as localBThe wave rebounds at a high point, and after breaking low, it becomes a small levelCThe wave continues, and with last Friday's seesaw decline, the probability of breaking the low and continuing this week is high, with a weaker short-term trend.1The hour chart is repeatedly sorted and finally closed at a low position, and sawing is the norm. The closing determines the continuation of the strength of the next day. With the closing price at a low level, the short-term trend is relatively weak today, and the critical point is also the second highest point105.40.做为小时图的台阶下跌通道运行，综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注99.0-100.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below95.0-94.0Frontline support.

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