Guide Metallographer:2.24下周黄金行情分析及开盘策略，强者步步为营

Life is always about making choices and waiting for results. The road cannot always be smooth, there will always be obstacles, mediocrity is not the goal that everyone pursues. The investment market is also the same, it cannot be smooth sailing, and windfall profits are everyone's dream, but there are always various temptations and traps along the way. Accustomed to unilateral behavior, one is always stifled by shocks and washes, which is the law of the market. In the face of life, we are making choices. We can't make a detour, we can't make a river, we always have to resort to other methods. And the market, too, should not blindly pursue operation. Some markets may see profits, but they may not necessarily be able to earn profits.

　　goldLatest market analysis:

Analysis of Gold News: Last Friday(4month22day)进入欧市盘中，欧元也承压下滑，美元坚挺重返101关口，黄金则维持跌势，跌幅接近10美元，测试1929支撑位，本周周线或下跌。指标美国10Annual bond yield(Yield rate)延续涨势，因美联储官员对收紧政策的态度强硬，巩固了美联储将大幅升息以对抗通胀的观点。美联储主席鲍威尔周四在国际货币基金组织(IMF)会议上，称赞前主席沃尔克于八十年代大幅加息并成功击败通胀，市场解读为鲍威尔打算大手加息。黄金对美国短期利率上升和收益率上升高度敏感，后者增加了持有非收益黄金的机会成本。表示，美元走强也可能令黄金承压，而地缘政治不确定性仍是支撑因素。金价处于这两股矛盾潮流的中间。

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金本周持续走弱，二次回落再次低点，上周四凌晨破位美盘反抽高点，短期节奏偏震荡。周五欧盘开跌口1953.5一线，凌晨和亚盘连续测试，短期分水岭非常明确。早间依托1953阻力位布局短空，最低下跌至1941附近，空头始终未形成延续，短期再次陷入焦灼。午后破位1953.5前面反复测试高点，短期节奏上还是循环震荡，从周一高位回落，周二连续下跌破位前面阶梯上涨形态，短期已经呈现见顶，而且目前市场对于美联储加息50个点预期增强，再次触及可能会形成刺破，所以今日操作上依旧采取阻力位去布局空。黄金目前k线大阴线强势下行，直接沉入海底了，大阴线的实体更是击穿了1938-35区域，之前就提到，击穿这个支撑位，自然就是调整方向，知行合一，要做到这四个字，确实很难。金价四小时线的实体断崖式下行，阴线实体也是直接击穿支撑位1938一线，同时也是击穿震荡区域，这是排山倒海的下行，50均线直接垂直下行了，macd能量柱再次位于零轴下方，k线也是再次被布林带中轨摁在地板上摩擦，k线也只能气喘嘘嘘，布林带轨道向下运行，开口进一步的加大。综上所述，黄金下周短线操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，短期上方重点关注1945-1950Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1920-1915Frontline support.

　　crude oilNext week's market analysis:

　　原油消息面解析：欧佩克12日发布的原油市场月度报告预计，今年全球原油需求为1.005Billion barrels/日，与之前的预计相比下调了4010000 barrels/日。欧佩克把2022年全球经济增速预期从一个月前的4.2%Down to3.9%，并认为还可能进一步下调，这一下调考虑到了俄乌冲突和疫情的影响。第三方数据显示，3月份欧佩克13个成员国日均产量增加了5.7Ten thousand barrels, reaching285610000 barrels/日。欧佩克还预计，今年非欧佩克产油国的原油产量为662610000 barrels/日，与之前的预测相比下调了3010000 barrels/日。其中，俄罗斯的原油产量预计将下滑5010000 barrels/Solstice112010000 barrels/日。欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国3month31日决定今年5月维持原定适度增产计划，将5月的月度总产量上调43.210000 barrels/Day.

Technical analysis of crude oil:

Crude oil opened yesterday at103.847dollar/桶，开盘后出现了震荡下跌走势，最低给到101.217dollar/桶徘徊。原油日线走势图，油价平行缓慢上行通道，卡两边来回摩擦，盘中两次依托通道上轨回落，当前来看，此时大阴有所破位通道下轨，下方关注100.5支撑，能否撑住以及能否回归通道之内，决定它是继续震荡反复还是短期走弱打压；强支撑还是关注99.1（618分割位置），也是多头的命脉点；因此，接下来支撑留意101.5and99.5两处，该位置得到支撑后，油价有望去考验前高105.4高点，进一步突破后将再次开启上涨格局。综上所述指南金师总结：原油本周上涨遇阻，周线收阴线，趋势偏空，所以下周一的操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回踩低多为辅，上方短期关注103.4-103.9Frontline resistance, short-term focus below99.8美元支撑，下破就需要关注96.0USD support.

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