在黄金市场中永远都离不开坚决的信心和敏锐的嗅觉

If a ship doesn't know which port to sail to, then the wind in any direction will not be downwind. If the transaction cannot be executed as planned, any trend in the market will be fleeting. Orders are always done as one pleases, the market is always what one does not want, always wanting to control everything, but actually being in the game! In a big environment, one should know to be content with the situation, while in a small ordinary situation, one should know how to overcome difficulties. There is no once and for all leisure, nor is there any easy blessing, gradually realizing that living hard is the norm. If you want to get more, you must not be afraid of hard work, sink your heart, and go all out!

Message interpretation:

　　周四晚间，鲍威尔在国际货币基金组织会议上关于全球经济的讨论中表示，鉴于美国通胀目前大约是美联储2%目标的三倍，美联储略微加快行动步伐是适宜的。美联储将在5月的会议上讨论加息50Basis points, interest rate hike50个基点将是美联储选项之一。鲍威尔还表示预计今年还会有一系列加息举措。近期，由于鲍威尔和其他许多美联储官员言论表现偏于鹰派。市场预计，美联储可能至少在5Month and6月会议上将加息50个基点。因此，在鲍威尔讲话后，市场担忧美联储的货币政策会愈发激进，gold价格维持低位形成反复震荡整理。

　　黄金价格继续保持震荡修正为主，盘中继续有所承压下行，但是幅度和空间不算太大，目前市场已经把焦点放在了美联储如何应对高通胀的风险上，以及接下来的加息力度到底要增加哪种地步。当然，地缘政治方面的局势也不可忽略，虽然近期避险情绪有所降温，不过一旦俄乌再次产生激烈冲突，不排除会再次对金价造成利好。

Gold Technology Analysis:

　　黄金周五白盘先震荡反弹，上方仅测压至1955/56一线，便再度表现承压回落，欧盘时段回落空间放大，跌破1940支撑，目前低点跌至预期短线支撑1930附近。小时图上，虽然黄金整体走势结构符合预期判断，但这比预期的下跌调整来得要早一些，不过在周五这个容易变盘的时间点出现下跌破位震荡中继区间也是可以理解的。

　　短线黄金可能会先借助1930附近支撑有所反弹，但也仅属于技术性反弹，上方关注1940短压反弹测试，而主要压力则下调至1945附近，同时此位也是目前20日线位置，如果行情收在20Daily line1945下方，则或将预示未来短期行情进入震荡回修状态，此前预期的回撤1910-00区域的概率将大大增加。鉴于目前行情整体偏空状态，所以操作上指南金师建议主思路还是以反弹择高空为主，低多为辅。

　　操作建议如下：

　　1.Retreat from1932-30附近可短多，严格设止损1927，主节奏下跌趋势，目标看1937-40区域立即减仓，剩余持单再看1945附近反弹测试。

　　2.上方如果反弹测压至1945/46附近可短空，至1948-50间轻仓再补空，目标看1940以下再做减仓，剩余持单可保留看1930。但鉴于目前行情已经下跌回吐不少空间，如果行情回到1950上方，则务必对空单止损出。

　　3.如果行情回到1950上方，或跌回到1930下方，盘整根据情况再做具体策略调整。

　　crude oilTrend analysis:

　　美油昨日整体震荡，虽晚盘时段有一波异动拉升，上方测压至105.4，但随后很快回落至10Daily line102附近，后半夜又反复出现震荡回弹，日线最终收得小阳，收于均线夹层内。从日线以及小时图结构上看，美油昨日走势很凌乱，导致行情出现如此混乱的状态，原因也是受基本面无序的影响。鉴于目前美油震荡状态，日内保守者暂时选择观望为宜，多看少动，或待晚间根据进一步情况再做打算。日内激进则继续关注上方104.5附近短压，可在104.0-2、104.5/6轻仓再尝试搏短空，但鉴于昨日凌乱状态，日内参与务必极轻仓，且务必带好止损，暂设止损105Above, look down at the target103.5-0区域先改保本止损，回撤102.3-0再做减仓，且可保留部分持单看做波段级别回调预期。

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