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If a ship doesn't know which port to sail to, then the wind in any direction will not be downwind. If the transaction cannot be executed as planned, any trend in the market will be fleeting. Orders are always done as one pleases, the market is always what one does not want, always wanting to control everything, but actually being in the game! In a big environment, one should know to be content with the situation, while in a small ordinary situation, one should know how to overcome difficulties. There is no once and for all leisure, nor is there any easy blessing, gradually realizing that living hard is the norm. If you want to get more, you must not be afraid of hard work, sink your heart, and go all out!
goldAnalysis of the latest market trend
Thursday(4month21During the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading in1953美元附近;周二黄金探底回升,因美联储褐皮书称美国企业受到劳动力短缺和高通胀的双重夹击,而数据显示美国3月成屋销售续降并创近两年最低,美元指数大幅回调,再加上俄罗斯打击几十处军事设施,美国宣布新一轮对俄制裁,避险买需回升,给金价提供支撑,短线走势不确定加强。分析师在一份报告中表示,黄金表现相对较好,今年上涨了约7%,尽管实际收益率上升,且美元走强。“战争加剧了”对通胀和增长的担忧,再加上股市和债市的波动,投资者愈发寻求避险。市场分析师表示:“在黄金市场,我们愈发接近买入机会……此前出现了一轮不错的小幅修正性抛售,现在有机会走高。”整体来看,美联储的加息前景,令黄金多头有所顾忌,但挥之不去的地缘局势担忧和通胀担忧,在金价回调之际会吸引逢低买盘,金价短线仍有望在震荡调整后继续走高。但需要密切关注俄乌局势的进展,如果俄乌双方停火并回到谈判桌前,届时一旦避险情绪降温,可能会令金价面临大幅走弱的风险。本交易日关注美国初请失业金人数变动,重点关注美联储主席鲍威尔和美国财长耶伦的讲话,俄乌局势的进一步消息也需要予以留意。
黄金从技术面来看,黄金昨日先抑后扬,日线收成小阳K线,最低下探1938一线启稳,盘中由于美元高位下挫。以及对通胀和乌克兰战争导致经济增长放缓的担忧。提振黄金短线反弹收高,而技术结构上此前一个交易日快速下挫后,指标并未完全拐头,隔日只要一停顿。就会陷入震荡,短期依旧单边动能不足,加之消息面的不定性,而美元短期多空转换频繁,也将侧面影响到黄金的短线方向。短线伴随着反复拉锯。4小时连阴下探后伴随三连阳的反弹修正。由于昨日下跌持续性不强,今日仍是多空延续之关键,均线指标依旧未拐头向下,若是昨日延续弱势下挫,今日指标向下,就会表现弱势下行,而昨日走出反弹。使得日内短线继续回归拉锯震荡。加之震荡行情中的反复。K线结构和指标都未形成单边,日内短线暂时以震荡思路对待。1小时图的多空分水岭在1960-1965一带,亚盘观望,欧盘争夺分水岭来决定日内区间,1960-1965之下震荡偏空,反之突破则看多。综上所述,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调低多为主,反弹高空为辅,上方重点关注1965-1970Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1935-1930Frontline support.
crude oilLatest Market Analysis
Analysis of crude oil news: Wednesday(4month20day)New York intraday, Beijing time22:30, USAEIAAccording to the published data, as of4month15日当周美国除却战略储备的商业原油库存降幅超预期,精炼油库存和汽油库存都录得下滑。EIA数据公布后美国原油价格短线冲高0.8美元。目前市场对原油的利多和利空因素均有,油价仍然陷入区间震荡中。EIA报告显示,美国至4month15日当周国内原油产量为2020year5month1日当周以来最高。美国至4month15Day and WeekEIA原油库存降幅录得2021year1month22日当周以来最大。上周美国战略石油储备(SPR)原油库存降至2002year2月以来的最低水平。美国东海岸馏分油库存上周跌至1996year4The lowest level since the beginning of the month. 美国上周原油净进口量降至2021year4The lowest level since the beginning of the month.
原油技术面分析:昨晚原油触底反弹,开盘在102.38dollar/桶,油价低位震荡,高点给到103.93美元,最低点在99.8美元徘徊。原油小时走势图上看,原油反弹103.93承压回落一路下跌至99.8附近收大阴线。今日原油反弹关注105.2附近压力,若不上破油价有可能出现承压概率。四小时级别上看,目前Bwavec的反弹走势大概率还未全部结束,当前属于99.8-105.2的短期调整走势,整体的回落重要支撑关注99.8水平支撑,然后需要关注黄金分割61.8%nearby99.20,万一直接跌破99.20就要考虑回归前期区间底部的可能。综合来看,原油今日短线操作思路指南老师建议以反弹高空为主,回调做多为辅,上方短期重点关注104.0-104.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below100.0-99.5Frontline support.
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