Guo Shengshan:4.20今日黄金震荡行情，最新原油黄金解析及策略

Trading core values: Trading is like fighting, both attacking and defending. Defensive means advancing with retreat, while offensive means retreating with advance. When risks outweigh profits, a perfect retreat is far more meaningful than a partial victory. The highest level of trading is short positions. Only short positions can calm down, only calm down can observe, only observe can be a judge, and thus distinguish between strong and weak trends. As long as one stands against the strong or weak team, profit is just a passing act. Therefore, the first thing a trader needs to learn is to spend most of their time observing, rather than participating. It is not necessary to participate every time, but to seek a trade that can turn the tide with just one attempt. There is no one in this world who lives easier than anyone else. It's just the strong. Even if they fall, they should smile, never cry out for pain when they fall, or turn on the lights when they are afraid of the dark. The strong are not born, they have just experienced more setbacks.

　　goldLatest market analysis:

Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday（4month20日）亚欧时段，现货黄金震荡微跌，延续隔夜跌势，一度创逾一周新低至1942.77dollar/盎司；隔夜金价大跌近30USD, due to10年期通胀保值债券(TIPS)收益率一度突破负值区间转正，为2020year3月以来首次，美元指数继续刷新近两年高点，极大的打击了多头信心。短线金价仍有进一步回调需求，关注55Daily moving average1923附近支撑。不过，俄乌局势依然紧张，投资者仍需留意逢低买盘的支撑情况。本交易日继续重点关注地缘局势和美联储官员讲话，留意美元和美国国债收益率的表现。

　　整体来看，在金价上冲2000整数关口受阻后，部分多头获利了结离场，美国实际利率转正和美元的大涨，给空头反扑提供了机会，金价短线仍有震荡调整的需求，目前正试探布林线中轨1943附近支撑，而且下方55Daily moving average1923附近肯定有更强的逢低买盘支撑；基本面方面，俄乌局势持续，也将在中长线限制金价的下跌空间。

　　黄金从技术面来看，黄金昨日承压重挫收低，最高反弹1982附近承压，欧美盘时段由于美元强势，黄金受挫，击穿1960打破了近期的震荡上升防守点，最低跌至1943dollar|盎司。日线收成大阴线，回吐近三个交易日的涨幅，从日线的结构来看，此前的反弹是小碎阳慢性上涨，上涨慢下跌快的走法。也显示出短期摸高动能不足，月线可能只是回补上影线而并非强势收复，随着日线的收低回落，阴吞阳，日内短线走弱。4小时一波连阴极弱的单边下挫放量，从1998形成首个顶部，二次反抽1982再次承压，形成了一波连阴式的放量，击穿1960后的多空转换，今日阻力点在1960.此位是强弱分界点，破位后的顶底转换。均线指标目前还是向上发散，亚欧盘预计还需要时间震荡修正，拉动指标拐头向下再进一步延续下行。1小时图布林道中轨压力下移至1963.以及昨晚尾盘的反抽高点1967形成共振压制。目前K线形态较弱，可能亚盘会惯性走出新低，但持续性是一个问题，毕竟昨日下挫后还来不及修正，均线指标未完全拐头。早盘可能先惯性摔跌，摔出新低后再进行反弹修正，在反弹中择机高空看延续。综合来看，今日黄金操作上郭晟衫建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期关注1965-1970Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1939-1934Frontline support.

　　crude oilLatest trend analysis:

　　美国石油协会(API)数据称，上周美国原油库存意外大幅下降，而汽油库存则意外上升。截至4month15During the current week, crude oil inventory decreased450Ten thousand barrels. Increase in gasoline inventory290Ten thousand barrels, reduced inventory of distillate oil170Ten thousand barrels. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)和盟友组成的OPEC+联盟的一份报告，由于俄罗斯在西方因其入侵乌克兰而实施制裁后开始减产，3monthOPEC+产量较目标低14510000 barrels/日。报告显示，俄罗斯3月石油产量比1001.810000 barrels/日的目标低了约3010000 barrels/Day.

Although the United StatesAPI数据显示库存下降，给油价提供反弹动能。但IMF下调经济预期，悲观的经济前景，引发需求的担忧，考虑到俄乌局势持续紧张，美英加三国宣布将向乌克兰提供新一轮武器援助，美国股市大涨，仍吸引逢低买盘，短线油价或短线震荡偏空。关注晚间EIA数据，即将NYMEXNew York crude oil5monthfutures移仓换月，波动或较大，注意风险。

　　技术面：日线行情以一根上影线长于下影线的大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日的行情延续震荡格局。4小时三连阴下挫放量，油价在放量后接近了布林道下轨，目前稍有停顿。结构上已经打破了此前的震荡多头上升，目前转换回落，今日修正后看进一步延续回落，修正的幅度有待确定，弱势修正以横盘整理代替。原油在93.0区域起涨，在109.8水平遇阻，目前这波下跌可能是对于前期上涨浪的调整。综上所述：原油现阶段支撑关注两个价位101.5-99.4美元，预期是对于前期上涨浪调整，今日操作上考虑高空低多策略，上方关注104.5-106.5USD resistance, follow below101.5-99.4美元支撑，趋势关注破点破线。

——This article is submitted by Guo Shengshan.

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.