Guide Metallographer:4.19黄金多空难以抉择，有老夫在，便可高枕无忧

　　4.19goldMarket trend analysis;

Monday(4month18day)，现货黄金上涨近1%, creating3month11New high in recent days1993.83dollar/盎司。乌克兰战争持续，强化了市场避险情绪，并进一步加剧高通胀.美联储面临失去对通胀叙事控制的真正风险，可能被迫采取比它所暗示的更激进的收紧政策，这增加了2023年经济增长明显放缓的风险。

　　上周末俄乌局势传来新消息，引发避险情绪升温，从而刺激金价上涨。提升了黄金的避险买需。尽管上周多个央行加息，美元相对强势，令金价暂时涨幅受限，但调查显示，分析师和散户普遍看涨后市，散户看涨比例更是高点72%。有消息称，面对通胀飙升，欧洲央行上周的举动被视为温和，施压欧元并间接利空金价。美国通胀年率已经高达8.5%，创逾四十年新高。

　　而美国失业率在3Month decrease3.6%的两年新低。高通胀和低失业率将为美联储下个月大幅加息50个基点奠定基础。花旗集团驻纽约经济学家表示：“大宗商品价格上涨带来的通胀进一步上行风险，可能在夏季出现供应中断，导致市场强化对美联储更趋鹰派的预期。”在全球普遍加息的环境下，相对于其他资产类别而言，黄金恐将遭受压抑。但另一方面，俄乌和谈陷僵局，俄罗斯总统普京周二将断断续续的和平谈判描述为“死胡同”。西方有分析认为，“俄罗斯似乎正准备在(Ukraine)东部发动一场重大攻势——这引发了对黄金作为避险资产的大量需求。”俄乌冲突若进一步发展，还导致全球食品和其他大宗商品价格飙升，营造了通胀加剧的环境，由此也就增添了黄金对抗通胀的魅力。

　　4.19Gold Technology Analysis:

　　周一现货黄金跳空高开，受周末俄乌暴发的地缘避险影响，黄金高开高走，日内最高触及1998一线，也符合了日线级别单阴修正的技术走势，目前黄金价格自1998一线遇阻回落，而2000一线是重要的心理关口，同时也是波段2070fall1890的反弹618阻力位附近，此位附近存在的压力较强，美盘博文中我们也给出了1988-2000附近的空单，目前已在1982一线离场，尾盘黄金持续走弱，价格突破前期关键顶底转换位1980First line, lowest touch1976一线，今日行情大概率会回补跳空缺口。

　　技术面，日线级别冲高回落收射击之星，是见顶信号，预示此次上涨有可能会在1998附近终结，不过还需后面进一步收线确认，下方关注5Daily moving average1970附近支撑得失，破位将跌向10Daily moving average1950一线，如果守住5日线黄金还有一次冲顶动作，4小时级别来看，黄金日内过山车，目前K线连阴，每根K线都留有长上影线，虽然反弹力度较强，但上方压力更强，目前布林带有收口迹象，5均线拐头向下，下方关注中轨1975一线支撑，破位将进一步向下轨1961附近发起冲击。而多空分水岭就在1960一线，破位趋势转空，守住后市仍看震荡上行。小时图价格已跌破早间起涨点，布林带向下开口，附图指标MACD死叉，因此日内操作上指南金师建议逢高做空看缺口回补，日内短线上方关注1985One line of resistance, pay attention below1971Frontline support.

　　4.19黄金策略：建议1983Short nearby, stop loss1988Above, target1971frontline.

　　crude oilTrend analysis:

Yesterday's white market rally of crude oil failed to continue, confirmation of filling the gap105Support continues to rise, whether the US market will once again hit a new high or close strong, and whether the price will gradually recover the resistance above, or is it a bullish trend and intraday trading that can be referred to105-105The range is much lower! Short term price trading107Area, intraday time correction position at105Nearby, this price level will have effective support today, and it is also the daily low of the early week's market trend. If we stabilize the bulls here, we have a greater chance of being tested113Location. Continue to follow the trend and lower it a lot

Operation suggestions:105Nearby, stop loss104, Objective109-113

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