Guide Metallographer:4.19黄金市场”指南一剑开天门，带你窥探天机“

Trading is like warfare, where both offense and defense are necessary. Defense is based on retreat, while offense is based on advance. When risk outweighs profit, a perfect retreat is far more significant than a partial victory. The highest level of trading is short positions. Only short positions can calm down, only meditation can observe battles, and only observation can serve as a referee, thus distinguishing between strong and weak trends. As long as one stands in line with the strong and weak teams, profit is just a passing act. Therefore, the first thing a trader needs to learn is to spend most of their time observing, rather than participating. They don't need to participate every time, they only want to turn the tide of trading once. There is no one in this world who lives easier than anyone else, but the strong. Even if they fall, they must smile, never cry out for pain when they fall, or turn on the light when they are afraid of the dark. The strong are not born, they have only experienced more setbacks.

　　goldMarket trend analysis:

Monday(4month18day)，现货黄金上涨近1%, creating3month11New high in recent days1998.16dollar/盎司。乌克兰战争持续，强化了市场避险情绪，并进一步加剧高通胀。美联储为对抗通胀被迫加快收水，也可能加速经济衰退的到来。随着俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争进一步放缓全球经济从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，增长放缓和高通胀的双重风险将冲击全球经济，各国面临如何在压低通胀的同时保持充分就业的难题，黄金已开启新的避险走势。

　　黄金日内开盘后即出现拉升回弹，主要还是受市场对俄乌局势恶化的担忧情绪影响，晚间上方高点测压至1993一线，欧盘时段虽有一定的回修，但回修空间太窄，且目前行情再度又出现回弹，所以当下受俄乌局势影响，整体市场情绪还是偏向看涨的。不过从技术角度来看，1980站稳后，行情是有望走高测压至2000整数关口位的，至于走高动能的强弱，则完全取决于市场对俄乌局势恶化的预期强烈程度，从日内黄金运行状态来看，对于俄乌局势恶化的担忧还不是很偏激，尚且还在可控范围内。

　　晚间上方着重关注2000整数位压力测试情况，预期在此承压的概率还是非常大的，但此位承压也仅仅是技术性承压，如果基本面突发消息利好，那么黄金冲破2000整数位关口也不是不可能的，只不过以已有状况来看，此情况出现的概率相对较低。晚间下方依旧还是先关注1980附近争夺，但还是不将此位作为关键支撑，如果行情承压2000进行技术性回修，那么跌破1980的概率以是比较大的，下方着重以5日线为主要支撑参考，一旦行情跌回5日线下，则将可能展开更大级别的回修调整。晚间操作上指南金师建议低多看涨为主，反弹高空为辅；多单建议回撤1982-85Long nearby, stop loss1978, Objective2000附近，空单触及1998-2000关口做空，止盈1989Stop loss2006.

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

　　4month18日亚洲时段，美油延续涨势，现报108.26dollar/桶；由于西方买家对俄罗斯原油敬而远之，俄罗斯经济至关重要的石油行业正遭受重创。莫斯科正在努力用亚洲新兴市场的销售来弥补西方市场的销售损失。分析人士预计，未来几个月俄罗斯将不得不减产，他们甚至暗示，这可能会对该国的生产潜力产生永久性影响。与此同时，作为OPEC+协议的关键成员国，俄罗斯被允许每月每天将原油产量提高10万桶以上，而该联盟正按计划每月每天解除削减40万桶原油产量。根据国际能源署IEA的估计，2022year1月，石油和天然气相关税收和出口关税收入占俄罗斯联邦预算的45%。IEA本周表示，原油和成品油的出口总收入目前每天约为7亿美元尽管资金仍在流入俄罗斯，但该国石油业已经显示出困境的迹象。随着更多买家避开俄罗斯原油和石油产品，未来几个月情况可能会恶化，总体来看，地缘局势的不确定性风险犹存，欧盟或将就俄采取新一轮制裁，且涉及银行和能源；另外，欧盟对乌克兰武-器装-备的支援增加，进一步增加了紧张局势的不确定性，油价或在相关消息的影响下，震荡上行。

　　原油上周中阳线收高，上周四个交易日，三个交易日的连阳，启稳在此前的颈线低点之上走反弹，短线走出了强势的连阳上升收复失地。上周五休市。上周四整理之后启稳放量上涨至107.70.本周再跳空高开高走。日线形成连阳偏强摸高当中，4小时此前突破下行通道之后，延续短线反转上升当中，打破了此前的弱势下跌，形成一波强势的震荡上扬，连续收复多重阻力，同时拉动均线指标拐头向上，而这波上涨，修正的手法是以时间换空间的整理。偏强势的整理修正。小时图台阶上升通道的次低点102.20已甩开一定距离。综合来看，今日原油操作思路上指南金师建议上方短期重点关注110.0-110.5Resistance, short-term focus below104.0-103.5Frontline support.

In this market, the most fair one is the market situation. All investors are facing the same market situation. However, facing the same market situation, investors will inevitably make different choices. When the market hits wave after wave like waves, some people face opportunities, prepare well, face them head-on, and stop making profits; Some people are afraid and unprepared, and are caught off guard by the market. The market is fair to everyone, it depends on how you face it. If you are the former, I can add icing on the cake for you; If you are the latter, I can lend you a helping hand.

　　本文由指南金师（wx：znjs1555     QQ：1503556243 ）供稿，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、等大宗商品等有深入的研究，由于网络推送延迟性，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，转载请注明出处