Guide Metallographer:4.14黄金还会大跌吗？最新行情分析及操作建议

　　【现货gold】

Thursday（4month14日）亚市盘初，现货黄金小幅回落，目前交投于1972美元附近；周三美盘时段公布的，美国3Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)by12年来最大升幅，因商品和服务需求强劲，这是通胀持续高企的最新迹象，可能迫使美联储大幅收紧货币政策。美联储需要大幅加息以对抗通胀，但不要突然行动，那么做将给市场带来压力、破坏就业并将经济推入衰退。美联储表示，经济可以承受激进的政策紧缩，支持FOMCstay5Monthly interest rate hike0.5个百分点的立场。更倾向于前置加息策略，5Monthly interest rate hike50Basis points,6月黄和7月可能也加50基点，希望在今年下半年之前超过中性利率。

　　今日晚间即将美当周初请失业金人数，目前市场预测17.1万人，相对前值要高一点，但就以往的数据趋势来看，基本处于逐步减少的状态，数据公布有可能会低于预期，这对于黄金来说可能不利。美加息难以跑赢通胀，实际利率将继续下行，在美联储加息预期被市场消化后，预计黄金价格将迎来新一轮趋势性上涨，并将可能再创历史新高。本交易日关注欧洲央行利率决议、美国初请失业金人数变动、美联储官员讲话、世界银行春季会议，重点关注俄乌局势的进一步消息，此外，俄罗斯总统普京将于当地时间周四就石油和天然气领域的形势举行会议，明天由于复活节，全日休市，今日提前收官周线。也需要予以关注

　　技术面，黄金高位区间逐步企稳，日线移动平均线呈较为规整向上发散排列形态，整体金价维持较为强劲偏多趋势形态，短期高位区间整理将进一步巩固多头趋势。4小时线显示，当前高位窄幅整理形成技术指标支撑位回踩走势，技术指标支撑位表现积极，4小时移动平均线呈较为强劲多头趋势形态，日内回落仍将面临较为密集技术指标支撑位影响。综上所述，操作中关注短期走高区间维持，日内金价回落或进一步陷入技术指标支撑压力位区间，短期回落较难形成大幅单边翻转形态。今日金价操作上上方先短期关注1985-1990区域的阻力，下方短期关注1960-1955The support of the gateway.

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

From a technical perspective, crude oil continued to rise and close higher yesterday, rebounding99.80Start stabilizing on the first line, then push up again, and refresh the week's high to104.68.Yesterday's plan99.50Going long did not give you an opportunity. A small step back. If the first entry point is not reached, it is easy to overlook the bulls' rhythm. The daily line continues to rise in both directions. Breaking the previous weakness and entering a volatile cycle, today's weekly closing work. The competition between long and short positions is still fierce, and the monthly line is in the midst of supplementing the upper shadow. It remains to be confirmed whether to confirm the high point and then fall back under pressure or to recover and rise strongly.4After breaking through the trend line of the downward channel during the hour, it continued to rise in volume, relying on98.80The breakthrough volume after the conversion support was achieved, while the top of the Bollinger track was opened, and the middle track experienced a slow rise in support. As the daily line and4The hours of continuous positive harvest are full, and there will be inertia in the short term, with more fluctuations in the short term rhythm. However, in the medium term, it is still in a long and short choice.1The hour chart forms a secondary small step that rises, reaching yesterday's low point99.80是今日的强弱分界点，由于回测空间略小，以横向强整理代替。综合来看，今日短线操作思路指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注105-106Resistance, short-term focus below99-100Frontline support.