Guide Metallographer:4.14今日黄金忽高忽低，多空如何抉择

　　goldTrend analysis:

　　今日晚间即将美当周初请失业金人数，目前市场预测17.1万人，相对前值要高一点，但就以往的数据趋势来看，基本处于逐步减少的状态，数据公布有可能会低于预期，这对于黄金来说可能不利。美加息难以跑赢通胀，实际利率将继续下行，在美联储加息预期被市场消化后，预计黄金价格将迎来新一轮趋势性上涨，并将可能再创历史新高。本交易日关注欧洲央行利率决议、美国初请失业金人数变动、美联储官员讲话、世界银行春季会议，重点关注俄乌局势的进一步消息，此外，俄罗斯总统普京将于当地时间周四就石油和天然气领域的形势举行会议，明天由于复活节，全日休市，今日提前收官周线。也需要予以关注。

Gold4小时级别可以看到，黄金从1890反弹以来，盘中经历的多种运行结构：V型反转、三角震荡收敛、区间震荡盘整、单边上涨，最终的结果都是多头，目前从技术面来看，黄金就是明显多头，大结构这点不用过多分析；目前重点关注的就是，黄金能否延续性走高，还是已经接近见顶，黄金这波小单边属于阶梯式上涨，这种结构的上涨，随时面临回撤调整，我个人认为黄金还有延续走高的空间，但是力度不会太大，短期有中空机会；我们判断顶部：第一就是强阻力、第二就是下方有效回撤，强阻力：1990-2000关口，这一区域也是前期的一个100多美金的强势下跌口，同时若能给到1990-2000关口，基本也能触发空头止损位，然后黄金再开始下跌；第二就是黄金有效回撤，这种回撤，若能连续破位三个低点：1970、1965、1960基本宣告上方有见顶迹象，接下来也可以找点位做空黄金；综合来看今日黄金操作上指南金师建议短线操作上，上方靠近1980区域做空，下方低点上方（1960）做多1次，看好即使下破，也不是一次性收复失地具体操作策略我会在盘中提示，及时关注。

Empty order strategy:1980-1983分批做空（买跌）十分之二仓位，止损6Points, target1985-1970Nearby, break down and take a look1965-60frontline

Multiple order strategy:Gold Callback1960-1963Nearby long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1965-1970Nearby, break down and take a look1975-80frontline

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Thursday（4month14During the Asian period, the US oil company is currently reporting103.48dollar/Barrels, oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday, and a significant increase in US crude oil inventories failed to alleviate concerns about global supply shortages. Major oil traders are expected to reduce their purchases of Russian oil; There is still a risk of uncertainty in the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine. Analysts say that a significant increase in crude oil inventories may be an important thing, but the decline in gasoline and distillate fuel inventories has offset the potential negative impact of crude oil inventory data. The significant increase in US crude oil inventories has failed to alleviate concerns about global supply constraints, and major oil traders are expected to reduce their purchases of Russian oil. Russian President Putin has stated that Moscow can easily shift its massive energy resource exports from the West to other countries. Some countries, including India, have been purchasing Russian oil at significant discounts. US Energy Information Administration(EIA)On Wednesday, US crude oil inventories increased by more than900Ten thousand barrels, partly due to the release of national strategic reserve crude oil, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased last week. Overall, although crude oil inventories in the United States have skyrocketed, there is still a risk of uncertainty in the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Major oil traders have reduced their purchases of Russian oil, increasing supply concerns and a strong oil price outlook; The rise of US stocks also boosted oil prices. Putin is expected to hold a meeting on the situation in the oil and natural gas sector during the day.

From a technical perspective, crude oil continued to rise and close higher yesterday, rebounding99.80Start stabilizing on the first line, then push up again, and refresh the week's high to104.68.Yesterday's plan99.50Going long did not give you an opportunity. A small step back. If the first entry point is not reached, it is easy to overlook the bulls' rhythm. The daily line continues to rise in both directions. Breaking the previous weakness and entering a volatile cycle, today's weekly closing work. The competition between long and short positions is still fierce, and the monthly line is in the midst of supplementing the upper shadow. It remains to be confirmed whether to confirm the high point and then fall back under pressure or to recover and rise strongly.4After breaking through the trend line of the downward channel during the hour, it continued to rise in volume, relying on98.80The breakthrough volume after the conversion support was achieved, while the top of the Bollinger track was opened, and the middle track experienced a slow rise in support. As the daily line and4The hours of continuous positive harvest are full, and there will be inertia in the short term, with more fluctuations in the short term rhythm. However, in the medium term, it is still in a long and short choice.1The hour chart forms a secondary small step that rises, reaching yesterday's low point99.80是今日的强弱分界点，由于回测空间略小，以横向强整理代替。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路指南金师建议以回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注105.5-106.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below101.8-101.3Frontline support.

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