Guide Metallographer:4.11晚间黄金会开始跌吗？操作建议及具体策略

Life is always about making choices and waiting for results. The road cannot always be smooth, there will always be obstacles, mediocrity is not the goal that everyone pursues. The investment market is also the same, it cannot be smooth sailing, and windfall profits are everyone's dream, but there are always various temptations and traps along the way. Accustomed to unilateral behavior, one is always stifled by shocks and washes, which is the law of the market. In the face of life, we are making choices. We can't make a detour, we can't make a river, we always have to resort to other methods. And the market, too, should not blindly pursue operation. Some markets may see profits, but they may not necessarily be able to earn profits.

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Analysis of the latest gold market:

　　黄金消息面解读：周一(4month11day)欧市早盘，美元指数自高点显着回落，该指数目前跌至99.75附近，此前亚市盘中一度突破100大关。现货黄金短线大幅反弹，金价刚刚突破1950dollar/盎司关口，目前正逼近1966dollar/盎司。本周市场需关注，美联储多位官员再度亮相发表讲话，已经表态过鹰派态度，言辞相似影响有限，意外言辞才能引起市场剧烈震动，另外关注美国消费者物价指数(也就是通胀CPIdata)，美联储激进加息的目的之一就是为了抑制通胀，留意最新的通胀数据情况。

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金上周五周线收官低位反弹收高，打破了周初的窄幅整理格调，并向上突破1940压制，最高至1948.日线收盘一根中阳线，周线则收成小阳线。周初整理，周尾走高，日线打破了此前的区间上轨，并收成小连阳反弹向上。日线仍处于颈线1890上方的整理修正当中，中期分界点1890得失是关键。投资者对乌克兰战争的经济成本以及法国总统大选可能带来的紧张局势感到担忧，令欧元承压。美元和黄金同步收涨。4小时上周守住在布林道下轨1915长时间整理启稳，周尾走出一波连阳式反弹。打破了窄幅整理区间，同时顶开布林道上轨。拉动均线指标拐头向上形成支撑。4小时显示短线还有适当延续性整理上扬空间，而中轨也是此前的回测的二次低点1926是强弱分界点，此位之上偏多。反之转弱，目前在中轨上方回调择机做多为主。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方重点关注1975-1980Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1952-1947Frontline support.

Analysis of the latest crude oil market

Monday(4month11day)，国际油价每桶下挫超过2美元，因此前全球消费国宣布计划从战略储备中释放创纪录数量的原油和油品，并且中国继续采取抗疫封控措施。然而，目前还不清楚这能否完全抵消俄罗斯石油减供。而印度正大量购买大幅打折后的俄罗斯石油。国际能源署(IEA)的成员国将在未来六个月内释放6000万桶储备原油，美国也将释放同一数量的原油，作为其在3月份宣布的1.8亿桶释放量的一部分。这些举措旨在抵消俄罗斯因受到严厉制裁而导致原油供应减少的影响。分析师在一份报告中表示，即使油价在每桶100美元左右，这一消息也可能阻止包括石油输出国组织(OPEC)和美国页岩油生产商在内的生产商加速增产。市场一直在关注中国的情况。根据“动态清零”策略，中国继续对人口逾2500万的上海实施封控。中国是世界上最大的石油进口国。市场分析师称：“由于美国和国际能源署成员国释放石油储备的共同努力，加上中国继续封控，造成需求减弱，油价正丧失动能，”

　　原油从技术面来看，日线级别震荡下跌；MACDDead fork,KDJ死叉，油价失守100关口后，失守55日均线后受到该均线压制，暗示下行压力依然较大，仍有进一步试探3month15Daily low point93.53附近支撑的可能性，但能否有效跌破还有待观察。进一步支撑在90Near the checkpoint,100The daily moving average is supported by88.26附近。鉴于油价上周在短暂跌至93.81后快速回升，暗示下方逢低买盘较强，油价短线仍有机会维持低位震荡。关注10Daily moving average100.61附近阻力，若能顶破该阻力，则削弱短线看空信号。55The daily moving average resistance is currently at98.78Nearby,21Daily moving average resistance103.19Nearby. Looking at the daily chart,NYMEX原油处于自116.64The downward trend of the US dollar opening(C)浪，可能已经在61.8%Target bit93.72美元获得支撑，但短期内料反复下探确认该支撑位可靠性。(C)Waves are from130.50The downward trend of the US dollar opening((2))浪的子浪。综合来看，今日短线操作思路指南建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注96-97Resistance, short-term focus below91-92Frontline support.

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