Guide Metallographer:4.11Gold skyrocketed1955，是否持续多头

　　4.11goldMarket trend analysis:

　　日线级别来看，上周先持续震荡，围绕在均线带上下运行，但并未突破20日线，导致震荡的主因是多空双方争夺造成的，而造成多空争夺的主因在于基本面多空的僵持，即市场对美联储加息预期对黄金带来阻力，而俄乌局势的不稳定又有一定的避险买盘需求，但双方又均没有明确的表态，所以黄金选择震荡来消化。上周五行情出现变数，即收得阳线站上均线带上方，这使得技术上存在偏强预期了，但是依然未必会有太强的上涨动能，主要因素依旧在于基本面目前并没有明确的利好支持，所以周五的收阳反倒给短线市场带来的是不确定风险，以及加大了本周初操作上的难度和风险。

　　周初黄金预期在没有基本面明确利好支持下，大概率还是会有技术性回撤动作的，下方着重关注均线带1933附近争夺，一旦行情跌回其下，则预示行情回归震荡，甚至重回弱势的可能。周初上方则关注区间上沿1950-55一带压力，预期如果没有基本面利好消息刺激，想要实现短期突破的可能性还是很低的。

　　从短线4小时结构上来看，上周五行情冲高至1950附近后方见承压，周初技术性回调预期还是有的，但是因周五震荡回升，短线结构重心也有抬升，所以本周初主思路可暂看回修，但下方如果支撑回撤不破，则技术上可侧重看回弹。周初上方关注1950Nearby pressure, pay attention below1935-33附近争夺。黄金在4小时图上，稳步上涨，当前处于前期高点重要阻力区，但并没有出现见顶信号，在这个信号没出现之前，我们保持看涨思路。今天做多重要的参考位有两个：1936.5and1933，假如金价回调到这些位置之后，先关注有无止跌信号出现，一旦出现，多单入场。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南老师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方重点关注1945-1953Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1936-1933Frontline support.

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis:

　　原油技术面分析：原油从日线上来看，原油上周收缩整理，周线收盘小阴十字K线，整体空间走得不大。日线连续的星K线整理，在低位测试颈线支撑，但始终仍未破位，本周仍要留意颈线处的争夺。颈线93.30是多空关键，失守则进行C浪下跌延续。目前还处于争夺的阶段。日K线目前稍有钝化等待打破。对俄乌局势导致供应短缺的担忧，美国与其他一些国家相继释放战略原油储备，导致油价承压。

　　4小时图短线处于下行台阶当中，逼近了前低点颈线的争夺，短线下行进入停顿蓄势阶段，单从4小时结构来看，还处于震荡式台阶下行当中，但只有下破93.50才能完全打开空间，上周在接近低点后局部进入震荡拉锯。本周依旧重点关注颈线得失，同时目前下行通道趋势线未突破，短线仍以反弹择机高空为主，或下破93.50加速打开空间再顺势跟进。日内短线阻力98.80-99.0.下行趋势线阻力100.30.综上所述总结：原油在经过连续下跌后，终于在上周周五出现了削弱迹象，本周重点关注油价上涨连续性，进一步打开上行空间，下方坚守在93.5The US dollar, which is the long short divide for bullish crude oil, is expected to continue a wave of upward trend if it does not break below this level. The upward target is focused on99.8Break situation, then102.0美元加速水平，今日原油操作上指南金师建议回撤布局多单为主，回撤支撑关注93.8-94.0美元一线。具体操作策略我会在盘中提示，及时关注。近期市场动荡幅度较大，机会与风险并存。控制风险再博收益。

　　原油操作策略参考：

Empty order strategy:

Above the rebound of crude oil98.8-99.0Short selling in batches nearby(Buy down), two tenths of a position, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target97.5-95.5Nearby; Dislocation93.8Near.

Below the crude oil correction93.8.0-94.0Nearby batch long (buy up), 2/10 positions, stop loss0.5USD, target97.0-99.0Nearby; Dislocation100.0Near.

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