Guide Metallographer:4.11How to choose between long and short gold? Trend analysis and operational suggestions

Message Interpretation

Friday(4month8day)The US dollar index once rose to100.19, for2020year5The highest level since the beginning of the month; The euro has fallen for seven consecutive trading days, reaching a new low in nearly a month, as investors are concerned about the economic costs of the Ukrainian war and the potential tension caused by the French presidential election, putting pressure on the euro. SpotgoldThis week's increase exceeded1%At its highest level in nearly two weeks, traders have temporarily ignored conventional negative factors such as rising US bond yields and a strengthening US dollar. Due to the situation in Ukraine, it will prevent Russian refineries from selling these two metals in the London market, which is one of the increasing measures taken in response to Russian interests. Affected by this news, spot palladium rose by more than10%to2467.51The high point of the US dollar is3month25New highs in recent days; Spot platinum once rose to990.22The high point of the US dollar; Spot Gold Burst20USD, refresh daily high to1947.97USD.

Gold Trend Analysis

The trend this week is still relatively clear, with a volatile pattern from Monday to Thursday. After Thursday's upward trend, the expectation of a downward trend no longer exists in the short term, so the main focus is on rebound and bullish, waiting for a rebound opportunity. In the evening, when we were given a rebound opportunity, we decisively entered the market and bullish, and the low level of rebound was also our expected point1932/35Nearby, what I'm looking at more is the upward break,1950/49The first line is the high point position in the early stage, so the short-term upward focus is on breaking through and gaining profits. Furthermore, it is important to emphasize the occurrence of market breaks after fluctuations. In terms of the trading time pattern of the week, Friday is often a relatively unpredictable trading day, because it is common for both sides of the trend to end on Friday, and after short-term breaks, there is a expectation of a high retreat and a rebound continuation trend. Therefore, in terms of layout, it is necessary to confirm before entering and participating in the layout, and pay attention to the time cycle.

On Friday, we mainly focused on the layout of the real market, with the main focus being to step back and follow more, rather than directly following more. There was a slight decline in the early trading, and the expected point of decline was also a secondary high in the early stage, according to the trend cycle1937/38It was a resistance point for yesterday's rise, so according to the plan, the entry layout will be in place. After the market fluctuates in the future, it will go up and break through, and at the same time, it will go up and break through the previous high point1940The first line thus formed a short-term strong continuation of the market, and the multiple orders on Friday night also saw significant profit taking. After targeted breakdowns next week, they still remained above the high point, so the strong market still looks to continue to dominate. The recent trend of the market has been relatively repetitive, as if a low level resistance leads to a reversal trend, there is a mentality of reverse participation after the market rises. They always believe that the market will reverse, and they will guess the top and bottom during the day. If they rise, they want to short, and if they fall, they are like going long. This kind of luck mentality is not recommended. It is difficult to change the direction of the market and the structure changes for a while, so do not easily reverse participate, It is advisable to prioritize the main direction of market fluctuations.

Breaking through represents the direction of the market, and in a strong environment, the direction is still strong. Therefore, the main trend is to follow more during the day, so if the high position is not too high, the opportunity to step back and enter the market is similar to Friday's participation method, rather than catching up early and participating, and retreating is more passive when the situation is tight. In terms of trend, I emphasized on Friday that if the market undergoes an upward breakthrough after experiencing low volatility, it is expected to form a break from the high point within the trading day, and the break will continue to fluctuate continuously. The trend of the market is consistent with expectations, and the break will occur1950After the high point in the early stage of the first line, the probability of maintaining an upward trend in the future is relatively high, so the short-term trend remains dominant. At the same time as the structure is established, following the participation is the choice of the point. It is advisable to enter the stage of stepping back to stop the decline, while the short-term break of the high point in the early stage forms a top to bottom transition. At the same time, after yesterday's high point, there was a confirmation trend of stepping back, and the shadow line of the low point touched1930First line, so in terms of operation guidelines, Jin Shi suggests paying attention to the strength of stepping back next week and making more layout, with a reference point for resistance above1950frontline*Break the relay and watch1965Recent highs!

Today's Golden Operation Concept and Layout:

Idea 1: Gold suggests withdrawal1937-38More participation nearby, defense1927, look at the goal1945-50Area, break through to see190-65Area;

Idea 2: Gold Suggestion: Do Not Break Above1950Participate in short air defense1955, look at the goal1940Nearby;

　　crude oilTrend analysis

Is there a disagreement in Europe regarding sanctions on Russia's oil, as Germany's energy and oil companies are more likely to see oil prices rise and fall now57%Relying on Russia while also using natural gas80%Relying on Russia, if sanctions sacrifice Germany's economic paralysis, it is obviously impossible. In other European countries, there is also a lot of dependence. When there is a disagreement or even a large-scale game in their own country, there will be a play to watch. Some people even remind energy to stay away from politics, listening to how ridiculous it is. Even art and even a cat are subject to sanctions. You can stay away from energy needs, which is obviously a pit, so oil will inevitably rise and fall, Recently, due to Saudi Arabia's safe haven oil rising again, the test is now118Pressure, this is consistent with previous analysis. In the end, the United States banned oil imports, and the maximum benefits did not break through130It indicates that stress manifests when things reach their extreme. Rebound and continue to short to meet the second gap92Area, in other words113Give you a light warehouse without hesitation, even if it's empty1Ten thousand dollars0.1The layout is also acceptable, and the total warehouse should not exceed0.3Then wait for the market news to ease, or the bulls will experience a final crazy flash crash, following the bearish trend40The same trend, now accelerating to catch up with the top, what you need to do is not to chase too much and prevent a sudden start to fall. radical101Participated in the empty space nearby, encountered again in the stable midline109.8Near the area, the central line has been opened for short selling, after all, the pressure is gradually moving downwards, and the following is running92Go. First encounter92reach90Multiple regional options