Chen Zeqiang ：4.9黄金原油下周行情涨跌走势分析，周一黄金交...

Acquaintance is fate, acquaintance is fate. I firmly believe that it is fate to meet for a thousand miles, and it is fate to wipe our shoulders without a share. The journey of investment is long, and temporary gains and losses are only the tip of the iceberg along the way. You should know that a wise man who has a thousand worries will have a loss, and a fool who has a thousand worries will have a gain. No matter how emotional you are, time will not stagnate due to you. Pick up the boredom in your heart and stand up again to pack up and move forward. At this moment, being able to read here indicates that you and I are destined. As long as you are willing to share your gains and losses with me, I will be happy to help you overcome difficulties and become your confidant on the investment journey. The stagnation of your heart makes you sit at the bottom of the well and sigh in the sky. Am I fortunate enough to accompany you as I pass by.

Investment itself has no risk, only out of control investments have risk

Message Interpretation

Friday(4month8day)The US dollar index once rose to100.19, for2020year5The highest level since the beginning of the month; The euro has fallen for seven consecutive trading days, reaching a new low in nearly a month, as investors are concerned about the economic costs of the Ukrainian war and the potential tension caused by the French presidential election, putting pressure on the euro. SpotgoldThis week's increase exceeded1%At its highest level in nearly two weeks, traders have temporarily ignored conventional negative factors such as rising US bond yields and a strengthening US dollar. Due to the situation in Ukraine, it will prevent Russian refineries from selling these two metals in the London market, which is one of the increasing measures taken in response to Russian interests. Affected by this news, spot palladium rose by more than10%to2467.51The high point of the US dollar is3month25New highs in recent days; Spot platinum once rose to990.22The high point of the US dollar; Spot Gold Burst20USD, refresh daily high to1947.97USD.

Gold Trend Analysis

The trend this week is still relatively clear, with a volatile pattern from Monday to Thursday. After Thursday's upward trend, the expectation of a downward trend no longer exists in the short term, so the main focus is on rebound and bullish, waiting for a rebound opportunity. In the evening, when we were given a rebound opportunity, we decisively entered the market and bullish, and the low level of rebound was also our expected point1932/35Nearby, what I'm looking at more is the upward break,1950/49The first line is the high point position in the early stage, so the short-term upward focus is on breaking through and gaining profits. Furthermore, it is important to emphasize the occurrence of market breaks after fluctuations. In terms of the trading time pattern of the week, Friday is often a relatively unpredictable trading day, because it is common for both sides of the trend to end on Friday, and after short-term breaks, there is a expectation of a high retreat and a rebound continuation trend. Therefore, in terms of layout, it is necessary to confirm before entering and participating in the layout, and pay attention to the time cycle.

On Friday, we mainly focused on the layout of the real market, with the main focus being to step back and follow more, rather than directly following more. There was a slight decline in the early trading, and the expected point of decline was also a secondary high in the early stage, according to the trend cycle1937/38It was a resistance point for yesterday's rise, so according to the plan, the entry layout will be in place. After the market fluctuates in the future, it will go up and break through, and at the same time, it will go up and break through the previous high point1940The first line thus formed a short-term strong continuation of the market, and the multiple orders on Friday night also saw significant profit taking. After targeted breakdowns next week, they still remained above the high point, so the strong market still looks to continue to dominate. The recent trend of the market has been relatively repetitive, as if a low level resistance leads to a reversal trend, there is a mentality of reverse participation after the market rises. They always believe that the market will reverse, and they will guess the top and bottom during the day. If they rise, they want to short, and if they fall, they are like going long. This kind of luck mentality is not recommended. It is difficult to change the direction of the market and the structure changes for a while, so do not easily reverse participate, It is advisable to prioritize the main direction of market fluctuations.

Breaking through represents the direction of the market, and in a strong environment, the direction is still strong. Therefore, the main trend is to follow more during the day, so if the high position is not too high, the opportunity to step back and enter the market is similar to Friday's participation method, rather than catching up early and participating, and retreating is more passive when the situation is tight. In terms of trend, I emphasized on Friday that if the market undergoes an upward breakthrough after experiencing low volatility, it is expected to form a break from the high point within the trading day, and the break will continue to fluctuate continuously. The trend of the market is consistent with expectations, and the break will occur1950After the high point in the early stage of the first line, the probability of maintaining an upward trend in the future is relatively high, so the short-term trend remains dominant. At the same time as the structure is established, following the participation is the choice of the point. It is advisable to enter the stage of stepping back to stop the decline, while the short-term break of the high point in the early stage forms a top to bottom transition. At the same time, after yesterday's high point, there was a confirmation trend of stepping back, and the shadow line of the low point touched1930一线，所以操作上陈泽强建议下周关注回踩的力度在做跟多布局，上方阻力参考点1950frontline*Break the relay and watch1965Recent highs!

　　下周黄金操作思路及布局：

Idea 1: Gold suggests withdrawal1937-38More participation nearby, defense1927, look at the goal1945-50Area, break through to see190-65Area;

Idea 2: Gold Suggestion: Do Not Break Above1950Participate in short air defense1955, look at the goal1940nearby

　　crude oilTrend analysis:

Yesterday, crude oil fluctuated and fell down95.3Nearby, explore on the rebound97.8Nearby, exploring the descent96Nearby, explore on the rebound98.7Nearby, closing97.7Nearby, the daily crude oil level includes a small positive line, while the weekly level includes a small negative line with a downward shadow. At the same time, the oil price also hit the early stage3month15Near the low point of the day, structurally105.6-93.8Step out of the Perfect5Wave down trend, oil prices on Thursday93.8The first line of stabilization and rebound has come to an endCWave downward trend, ushering in93.8-97.3Rebound trend, seen as the first wave of upward trend, with prices falling during the day95.2It happens to be the golden section50%The position of 'has stopped the decline and completed the second wave of correction, while also ushering in the third wave of upward trend. So95.2-98.7We have just completed the third wave of upward trend continuation, and we need to pay attention to whether the third wave of upward trend continues.

In summary, after a continuous decline in crude oil, it finally showed signs of weakening on Friday this week. Next week, we will focus on the continuity of oil price increases, further opening up upward space, and sticking to the95.5The US dollar, which is the long short divide for bullish crude oil, is expected to continue a wave of upward trend if it does not break below this level. The upward target is focused on99.5Break situation, then102.0The acceleration level of the US dollar is considered for next week's operations, with a focus on pullback layout and multiple orders, with pullback support being the focus96.8-95.5One line of US dollars.

This article was submitted by Chen Zeqiang. Due to the delay in online push, the above content is personal advice. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at your own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting.