Guide Metallographer:4.7早间黄金最新行情分析及在线指导

Core values of trading: Trading is like warfare, where both offense and defense are necessary. Defense is based on retreat, while offense is based on advance. When risk outweighs profit, a perfect retreat is far more significant than a partial victory. The highest level of trading is short positions. Only short positions can calm down, only meditation can observe battles, and only observation can serve as a referee, thus distinguishing between strong and weak trends. As long as one stands in line with the strong and weak teams, profit is just a passing act. Therefore, the first thing a trader needs to learn is to spend most of their time observing, rather than participating. They don't need to participate every time, they only want to turn the tide of trading once. There is no one in this world who lives easier than anyone else, but the strong. Even if they fall, they must smile, never cry out for pain when they fall, or turn on the light when they are afraid of the dark. The strong are not born, they have only experienced more setbacks.

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Analysis of the latest gold market:

Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday(4month6day)，现货黄金走低，因美元指数创下2020year5month6New high in recent days99.759，此前美联储官员发表了更加鹰派的言论，暗示最早下月开启缩表。而西方对俄罗斯实施新制裁的前景将利空欧元，进而变相利好美元。专业人士预测，未来两年欧洲大部分地区的通胀率将超过4.5%。3月美联储会议纪要将于北京时间周四(4month7day)2点公布，可能会提供关于决策者想以多快速度缩减资产负债表和提高利率的线索。美联储立场近期越来越来越鹰派。美联储主要成员的鹰派评论很可能给即将公布的美联储会议纪要蒙上阴影，因为它们指向下一次会议上加息50个基点，以及比预期更快地缩减资产负债表，这有望给黄金带来新的卖压。

　　本交易日来看，将于北京时间周四凌晨02:00公布的上个月美联储会议记录，可能会提供关于决策者想以多快速度减少债券持有量和提高利率的线索。美联储的立场一直听起来越来越鹰派。美国公债收益率创下多年新高，长期收益率涨势更快，部分扭转了美国曲线近期的一些倒挂现象。美联储理事和旧金山联邦储备银行总裁发表的讲话均显示，她们都预期升息，而对前者来说，则是大幅缩减其资产负债表上的资产。她表示：“降低通胀至关重要，负责设定利率的FOMC将通过一系列加息，以及在5月会议后立即开始缩减资产负债表，继续有条不紊地收紧货币政策。”美联储已经宣布今年首次加息，在3Monthly interest rate hike0.25%。市场预计，今年剩下的六次会议每次都将上调利率，可能总计上调2.5%。这言论更引人注目的是，人们认为他们站在美联储的鸽派阵营——这意味着他们通常倾向于低利率和宽松的政策。他们都认为收紧货币政策相当迫切，这突显出美联储对这一威胁的重视程度，进一步打压金价。

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金昨日探高回落收低，现货黄金今日走势类似于昨天走势，今日亚盘黄金维持在1925下方横盘震荡，欧盘探底回升上冲至1933一线再度出现跳水回落，1933刚好是昨天高点的回调线0.618阻力位附近，日内低点最低给到1915附近，整体上黄金仍在区间内，多空都不延续，短线操作上增加了风险和难度。结构上看黄金目前横向整理，不过高点逐渐下移，下方低点多次试探，随时都有下破的风险，技术上黄金震荡偏弱运行，晚间继续关注5Daily line1927附近短压测试，主要压力依旧看10Daily line1933as well as20Daily line1938附近压力测试，但凡只要行情未站上20日线之上，那么技术上就存在看调整的预期和条件。晚间下方继续还是关注近期的争夺低点1915附近测试，一旦此位有效失守，则行情回撤1910even to the extent that1905-00区域将会成为可能。

　　日内行情先承压1925一线震荡，欧盘时段下方再回撤至1915附近，但随后出现一波急促拉升，致高点测压至1933一线，不过随后行情又再度出现回落，走势节奏类似于隔夜的过山车式行情，而市场再度出现如此走势，也再度说明当前多空双方情绪上的不稳定，以及给操作上带来的风险和难度。

　　黄金结合目前日线以及小时图状态，技术上黄金还是有进一步下修可能的，晚间上方继续关注5Daily line1927附近短压测试，主要压力依旧看10Daily line1933as well as20Daily line1938附近压力测试，但凡只要行情未站上20日线之上，那么技术上就存在看调整的预期和条件。晚间下方继续还是关注近期的争夺低点1915附近测试，一旦此位有效失守，则行情回撤1910even to the extent that1905-00区域将会成为可能。综上所述指南金师总结：黄金再次反弹收阴线，在金价昨日的先涨后跌出现了大瀑布，进一步表明上方阻力位比较强，今日操作上考虑反弹做空为主，上方关注1935美元，意外上破就关注1945水平阻力，下方关注1915一线，该位置属于M型颈线位，进一步下破将打开下行空间，去考验1890水平支撑

Analysis of crude oil trend:

　　原油从日线上来看，原油昨日惯性反弹后承压回落，最高至105.70承压，回测至100.0下方，且收盘在低位，日线收成中阴K线，回吐前一日的上涨空间2/3.日线仍处于酝酿下跌C浪。下方关键的支撑点仍在93.30.由于均线指标还未完全拐头，所以震荡拉锯的时间较长，伴随着反复的探高回落蓄势拉动指标。操作上同样保持高空主思路，先短线后结合空间来转波段性下看。

　　4小时暂时处于下行趋势线之下运行，昨日计划106附近放空，没完全触及到下行趋势线，提前承压回落，同时4小时也处于台阶下跌通道中运行，前一高点在105.5.在下跌通道中蓄势下行破低，从而来定C浪下行的空间。目前还处于结构性构造。小时图收低后重新走弱，今日短线在昨日高点下方择机高空。而下行趋势线的阻力下移至103.60.布林道中轨的阻力在102.80附近，短线空头趋势较为明朗。1小时图上周五在101.50两次反抽承压收低，均线指标已形成空头发散，后市还有空头放量的走势。小时图收低后重新走弱，今日短线在昨日高点下方择机高空。阻力在103.0-104.0附近。综合来看：今日原油操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注102.8-103.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below100.0-99.8Frontline support. I will prompt you on the specific operation strategy in the disk and pay attention to it in a timely manner. The recent market turbulence has been significant, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Control risks and increase profits.

I really like the sentence spoken by Shakyamuni Buddha: "No matter who you meet, he is the person you should appear in your life, not by chance. He will definitely teach you something. So I also believe: "No matter where I go, it's always the place I should go, experience something I should experience, and meet the person I should meet." Everyone reading this article, thank you for meeting you!

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